Northampton 2-3 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plymouth at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sixfields Stadium plays host to Northampton versus Plymouth in League One (matchday 46). Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Northampton (all games): 0W 0D 10L across their last 10 — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Northampton's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Plymouth have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Plymouth's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plymouth are 2.10 PPG clear of Northampton over their recent games (2.10 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Northampton edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Northampton 3–0 Plymouth — a Northampton win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Northampton — key trading statistics (last 91 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Plymouth — key trading statistics (last 91 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 50% versus Plymouth 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 47% | Plymouth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.82 xG and Plymouth 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.693 / defence 1.317 | Plymouth attack 1.381 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.177. Northampton's attack rating of 0.693 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Plymouth have an above-average attack rating of 1.381, which lifts their away xG to 2.14. Northampton's defence rating of 1.317 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plymouth's projected output up. Data: built from Northampton's last 91 games and Plymouth's last 45.
Result probabilities: Northampton 13% | Draw 19% | Plymouth 68%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 7.60 | Draw 5.23 | Plymouth 1.48. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (68%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Northampton's last 10 home games and Plymouth's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Northampton 60% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, matchday 46 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 13% | Draw 19% | Plymouth 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Northampton 0.82 / Plymouth 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.693 / def 1.317 | Plymouth attack 1.381 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Plymouth xG
49%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Plymouth kick off?
Northampton vs Plymouth kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Plymouth?
Northampton 2 - 3 Plymouth.
Where is Northampton vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Plymouth part of?
Northampton vs Plymouth is a League One fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 13% chance of winning, Plymouth a 68% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Northampton and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Northampton vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Northampton's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.38x) against Northampton's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 2.14.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 91 games and Plymouth's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
13%
7.60
19%
5.23
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.96
2.14
Plymouth xG
7.60
13%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
12%
8.52
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
2%
64.76
30%
3.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Northampton and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Northampton and 2.14 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 91 outings, Northampton have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 21W 23D 47L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 32W 20D 39L from 91 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Northampton against 1.27 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Northampton have posted 1.11 PPG from their last 45 home games (13W 11D 21L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 13W 9D 23L from their last 45 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Northampton are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.35 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 91 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
Northampton (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Northampton vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 21W 23D 47L in their last 91 games (0.95 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 32W 20D 39L in their last 91 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Plymouth away?
Northampton's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.11 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Northampton
0
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Plymouth?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 1, Plymouth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Northampton 2-3 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 49%, Plymouth 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Northampton) and 53% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Northampton have failed to score in 40% of games; Plymouth in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Plymouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Northampton's recent matches and 40% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Northampton and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Northampton's recent games and 53% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Northampton's recent matches and 76% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Northampton 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Northampton 2-3 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 0.82 xG and Plymouth 2.14 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Northampton beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plymouth outscored their 2.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.69 / defence 1.32 against Plymouth attack 1.38 / defence 0.87, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 13% | Draw 19% | Plymouth 68%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 47%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 0.95 PPG, Plymouth 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 46
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →