Northampton 1-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host Peterborough at Sixfields Stadium in League One (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Northampton have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Northampton's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Northampton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Peterborough stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Peterborough — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Northampton, 2 for Peterborough and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Northampton 1–2 Peterborough — a Peterborough win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (last 80 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Peterborough trading profile (last 80 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 49% versus Peterborough 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 46% | Peterborough 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.13 xG and Peterborough 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.782 / defence 1.127 | Peterborough attack 1.015 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.140. Northampton's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Data: built from Northampton's last 80 games and Peterborough's last 80.
Result probabilities: Northampton 32% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 41%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 3.11 | Draw 3.66 | Peterborough 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Northampton 70% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 35 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 32% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Northampton 1.13 / Peterborough 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.782 / def 1.127 | Peterborough attack 1.015 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Peterborough xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Peterborough kick off?
Northampton vs Peterborough kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Peterborough?
Northampton 1 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Northampton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Peterborough part of?
Northampton vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 32% chance of winning, Peterborough a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Northampton and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Northampton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.78) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 80 games and Peterborough's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.66
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.44
1.30
Peterborough xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Northampton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Northampton and 1.30 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 80 games, going 21W 22D 37L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.20 PPG from 80 outings (27W 15D 38L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.06 PPG, Peterborough on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 13W 10D 17L across their last 40 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 1.02 points per game from their last 40 away games (12W 5D 23L).
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.46 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 61%.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
Northampton (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 21W 22D 37L in their last 80 games (1.06 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 27W 15D 38L in their last 80 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Peterborough away?
Northampton's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.23 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.02 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Mar 2024, when Peterborough won Peterborough 5-1 Northampton.
Northampton's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Peterborough?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 3, Peterborough have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Northampton and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Northampton 1-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Peterborough?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 48%, Peterborough 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Northampton) and 62% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Northampton have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Peterborough matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Northampton's games and 62% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Northampton and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Northampton's recent games and 62% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Northampton's recent matches and 68% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton and Peterborough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 35, as Northampton and Peterborough drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.13 xG and Peterborough 1.30 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.78 / defence 1.13 against Peterborough attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 32% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 41%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 46%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.06 PPG, Peterborough 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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