🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Northampton at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Port Vale make the trip to Sixfields Stadium to face Northampton in League One, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Northampton's overall League One record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Northampton are significantly better at Sixfields Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Port Vale have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in League One this season, Port Vale have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Northampton against 0.80 for Port Vale. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Northampton 2W, Port Vale 1W, 2D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Northampton half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 49% versus Port Vale 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 46% | Port Vale 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.54 xG and Port Vale 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.865 / defence 1.114 | Port Vale attack 0.698 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.150. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Northampton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 79 Northampton games / 30 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Northampton 53% | Draw 26% | Port Vale 22%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Port Vale 4.55. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 70% | Port Vale 30%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights