Northampton 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charlton make the trip to Sixfields Stadium to face Northampton in League One, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Northampton (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Northampton are significantly better at Sixfields Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Northampton's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Northampton 1W, Charlton 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2024, ended 3–2 with Northampton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (80 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (80 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Northampton 55% and Charlton 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 51% | Charlton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.54 xG and Charlton 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.993 / defence 1.029 | Charlton attack 1.028 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.200. Data: 34 Northampton games / 81 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 25% | Charlton 31%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Charlton 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 50% | Charlton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 25% | Charlton 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Northampton 1.54 / Charlton 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.993 / def 1.029 | Charlton attack 1.028 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Northampton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Charlton xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Charlton kick off?
Northampton vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Charlton?
Northampton 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Northampton vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Charlton part of?
Northampton vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 44% chance of winning, Charlton a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Northampton and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Northampton 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Northampton and Charlton in?
Northampton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Charlton (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Northampton's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (1.03x) against Northampton's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 34/81 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.01
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.81
1.27
Charlton xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Northampton and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Northampton and 1.27 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 80 outings, Northampton have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 37W 20D 23L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 24W 26D 30L from 80 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Northampton are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Northampton have posted 1.72 PPG from 39 outings (19W 10D 10L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 9W 14D 16L from 39 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.46 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 65%.
Last 80 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Charlton in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 37W 20D 23L in their last 80 games (1.64 PPG), while Charlton have gone 24W 26D 30L in their last 80 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Charlton away?
Northampton's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.72 PPG; Charlton away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 0-5 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Northampton have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Charlton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Charlton 2-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 54%, Charlton 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Northampton) and 46% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Charlton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Northampton's games and 59% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Northampton vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Northampton's recent games and 46% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Charlton tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Charlton in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Northampton and Charlton drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.54 xG and Charlton 1.27 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against Charlton attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 34/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 44% | Draw 25% | Charlton 31%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 51%, Charlton 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.