Cheltenham 1-3 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Charlton travel to Completely-Suzuki Stadium to take on Cheltenham. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 March 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cheltenham stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cheltenham have posted 5W 3D 2L at Completely-Suzuki Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cheltenham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cheltenham register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Charlton in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cheltenham, 1 for Charlton and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Charlton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (80 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Charlton in-play tendencies (80 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 38% versus Charlton 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 41% | Charlton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.48 xG and Charlton 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.982 / defence 1.059 | Charlton attack 1.020 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.201. Data: 80 Cheltenham games / 82 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 42% | Draw 25% | Charlton 33%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Charlton 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cheltenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 60% | Charlton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 42% | Draw 25% | Charlton 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Cheltenham 1.48 / Charlton 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.982 / def 1.059 | Charlton attack 1.020 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Charlton xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Charlton kick off?
Cheltenham vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 March 2024 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Cheltenham 1 - 3 Charlton.
Where is Cheltenham vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Charlton part of?
Cheltenham vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 42% chance of winning, Charlton a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cheltenham and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Charlton?
Record (5 meetings): Cheltenham 2W | Draws 2 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Cheltenham and Charlton in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.98) and Charlton's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
42%
2.41
25%
3.96
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.78
1.30
Charlton xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.30 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 80 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 23W 19D 38L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 23W 27D 30L from 80 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cheltenham on 1.10 PPG, Charlton on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.35 PPG from 40 outings (14W 12D 14L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 9W 15D 16L from 40 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cheltenham are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.46 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 66%.
Last 80 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Charlton in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 23W 19D 38L in their last 80 games (1.10 PPG), while Charlton have gone 23W 27D 30L in their last 80 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Charlton away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.35 PPG; Charlton away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Cheltenham or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cheltenham have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Charlton in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cheltenham
2
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 2, Charlton have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2024, when Cheltenham 1-3 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 42%, Charlton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cheltenham) and 45% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cheltenham have failed to score in 35% of games; Charlton in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 60% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cheltenham's recent games and 45% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Charlton tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Charlton in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cheltenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Cheltenham 1-3 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.48 xG and Charlton 1.30 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Charlton outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Charlton attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 80/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 42% | Draw 25% | Charlton 33%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 41%, Charlton 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.10 PPG, Charlton 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Cheltenham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.