Burton Albion 0-2 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burton Albion host Northampton at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Burton Albion — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Burton Albion's home record at Pirelli Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League One games this season, Northampton have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Northampton have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Burton Albion) versus 1.50 (Northampton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Burton Albion have won 0, Northampton 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Northampton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Northampton in-play and half-time data (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 47% versus Northampton 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 47% | Northampton 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.77 xG and Northampton 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.870 / defence 0.853 | Northampton attack 1.111 / defence 1.527. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.212. Northampton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.527 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 78 Burton Albion games / 33 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 52% | Draw 23% | Northampton 25%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Northampton 4.00. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 40% | Northampton 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 52% | Draw 23% | Northampton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Burton Albion 1.77 / Northampton 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.870 / def 0.853 | Northampton attack 1.111 / def 1.527 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Northampton xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Northampton kick off?
Burton Albion vs Northampton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Northampton?
Burton Albion 0 - 2 Northampton.
Where is Burton Albion vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Northampton part of?
Burton Albion vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 52% chance of winning, Northampton a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Burton Albion and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Northampton?
Record (1 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 0 | Northampton 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Northampton in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Northampton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Northampton's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
52%
1.93
23%
4.27
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.92
1.15
Northampton xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
4%
23.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.15 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 78 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 25W 19D 34L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Northampton's form line: 35W 20D 23L from 78 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.21 PPG, Northampton on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.47 PPG from 38 outings (15W 11D 12L).
On the road, Northampton have gone 16W 9D 13L from 38 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.33 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Northampton in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 25W 19D 34L in their last 78 games (1.21 PPG), while Northampton have gone 35W 20D 23L in their last 78 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Northampton away?
Northampton's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.47 PPG; Northampton away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and Northampton runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Burton Albion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2025, when Burton Albion won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
1
Draws
3
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Northampton?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, Northampton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Northampton 0-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Northampton?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 45%, Northampton 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Burton Albion) and 53% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 55% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Burton Albion's recent games and 53% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Northampton tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Northampton in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Burton Albion 0-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.77 xG and Northampton 1.15 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Northampton outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.87 / defence 0.85 against Northampton attack 1.11 / defence 1.53, drawn from 78/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 52% | Draw 23% | Northampton 25%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Northampton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 47%, Northampton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Northampton's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.21 PPG, Northampton 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Northampton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.