Lincoln 0-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lincoln host Stevenage at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lincoln — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lincoln's home record at LNER Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at LNER Stadium this season.
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stevenage's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lincoln at 1.90 PPG versus Stevenage's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lincoln, 1 for Stevenage and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (80 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (80 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 41% versus Stevenage 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lincoln 31% | Stevenage 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.21 xG and Stevenage 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.893 / defence 0.729 | Stevenage attack 1.063 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.200. Lincoln's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 81 Lincoln games / 34 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 42% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 28%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Stevenage 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lincoln are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Lincoln 50% | Stevenage 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 42% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Lincoln 1.21 / Stevenage 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.893 / def 0.729 | Stevenage attack 1.063 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Stevenage xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Stevenage kick off?
Lincoln vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Lincoln vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Stevenage part of?
Lincoln vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 42% chance of winning, Stevenage a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lincoln and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Lincoln 0W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Lincoln and Stevenage in?
Lincoln (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 0.89x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 81/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
42%
2.36
29%
3.42
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.14
0.93
Stevenage xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.93 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln's recent record stands at 27W 31D 22L from 80 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 41W 21D 18L across 80 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lincoln heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 14W 19D 6L from 39 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 15W 13D 11L across 39 trips, a 1.49 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.36 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Stevenage in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 27W 31D 22L in their last 80 games (1.40 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 41W 21D 18L in their last 80 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Stevenage away?
Lincoln's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.56 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Stevenage in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lincoln and Stevenage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lincoln
3
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 2, Stevenage have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Stevenage 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Stevenage?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 44%, Stevenage 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Lincoln and 41% for Stevenage.
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Stevenage in 31%; Lincoln have failed to score in 31% of games; Stevenage in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Lincoln's recent matches and 49% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Lincoln's recent games and 41% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Stevenage tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Lincoln and Stevenage drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.21 xG and Stevenage 0.93 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Stevenage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.89 / defence 0.73 against Stevenage attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 81/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 42% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 28%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 31%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.