Morecambe 1-4 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Morecambe at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Morecambe vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charlton make the trip to Mazuma Stadium to face Morecambe in League One, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Tuesday 14 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Morecambe have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Morecambe have posted 5W 4D 1L at Mazuma Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Morecambe are significantly better at Mazuma Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Charlton's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Morecambe, 1.10 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Morecambe lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Morecambe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Morecambe — key trading statistics (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Charlton — key trading statistics (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Morecambe 57% versus Charlton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Morecambe 53% | Charlton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 1.27 xG and Charlton 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 1.021 / defence 0.963 | Charlton attack 0.849 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.053. Data: 82 Morecambe games / 81 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Morecambe 45% | Draw 30% | Charlton 25%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 4.00. Morecambe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Morecambe are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Morecambe if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Morecambe 50% | Charlton 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Mazuma Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 45% | Draw 30% | Charlton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Morecambe 1.27 / Charlton 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 1.021 / def 0.963 | Charlton attack 0.849 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Morecambe (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Charlton xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Morecambe vs Charlton kick off?
Morecambe vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 14 March 2023 at Mazuma Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Charlton?
Morecambe 1 - 4 Charlton.
Where is Morecambe vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Charlton part of?
Morecambe vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 45% chance of winning, Charlton a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Morecambe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Morecambe and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Morecambe vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Morecambe 1W | Draws 1 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Morecambe and Charlton in?
Morecambe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Charlton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Morecambe's attack rating (1.02) and Charlton's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.85x) against Morecambe's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 82/81 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Morecambe Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.32
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Morecambe xG
Total xG
2.13
0.86
Charlton xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
7%
14.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Morecambe and 0.86 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 81 outings, Morecambe have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 17W 23D 41L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 27W 20D 34L from 81 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Morecambe against 1.25 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Morecambe have posted 1.27 PPG from 40 outings (12W 15D 13L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 11W 10D 19L from 40 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Morecambe are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.25 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 81 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Morecambe and Charlton in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 17W 23D 41L in their last 81 games (0.91 PPG), while Charlton have gone 27W 20D 34L in their last 81 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Charlton away?
Morecambe's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.27 PPG; Charlton away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 1-4 on 14 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Morecambe have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Morecambe
1
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Morecambe have won 2, Charlton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Charlton 2-3 Morecambe.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Charlton?
Morecambe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 58%, Charlton 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Morecambe) and 48% (Charlton).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Morecambe play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Morecambe's games and 58% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Morecambe vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Morecambe's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Morecambe and Charlton tend to score early?
Morecambe have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Charlton in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charlton run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Morecambe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Morecambe 1-4 at Mazuma Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.27 xG and Charlton 0.86 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Charlton outscored their 0.86 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Charlton attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 82/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 45% | Draw 30% | Charlton 25%, with Morecambe to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Charlton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 53%, Charlton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Morecambe 0.91 PPG, Charlton 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Morecambe (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.