Exeter City 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sheffield Wednesday make the trip to St James Park to face Exeter City in League One, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Exeter City (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Exeter City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Exeter City's home record at St James Park: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Sheffield Wednesday have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sheffield Wednesday are 0.90 PPG clear of Exeter City in recent League One fixtures (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Exeter City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sheffield Wednesday goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 53% versus Sheffield Wednesday 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 48% | Sheffield Wednesday 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 0.89 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 1.043 / defence 1.272 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.951 / defence 0.666. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.192. Sheffield Wednesday's defence strength of 0.666 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 20 Exeter City games / 66 Sheffield Wednesday games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 23% | Draw 27% | Sheffield Wednesday 50%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 4.35 | Draw 3.70 | Sheffield Wednesday 2.00. Sheffield Wednesday hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Exeter City 50% | Sheffield Wednesday 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 23% | Draw 27% | Sheffield Wednesday 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Exeter City 0.89 / Sheffield Wednesday 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 1.043 / def 1.272 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.951 / def 0.666 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Sheffield Wednesday xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 December 2022 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Exeter City 1 - 1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 23% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Exeter City and Sheffield Wednesday will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Sheffield Wednesday?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Exeter City and Sheffield Wednesday in?
Exeter City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Exeter City's attack at 1.04x the league average against Sheffield Wednesday's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sheffield Wednesday's attack (0.95x) against Exeter City's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 20/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
23%
4.35
27%
3.70
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.33
1.44
Sheffield Wednesday xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
5%
18.42
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 14.1 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.44 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Exeter City have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 30W 20D 16L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Exeter City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Wednesday's form line: 35W 18D 13L from 66 games, 1.86 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Exeter City against 1.86 for Sheffield Wednesday. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Exeter City have posted 1.94 PPG from 33 outings (19W 7D 7L).
On the road, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 14W 9D 10L from 33 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Exeter City are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.70 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Sheffield Wednesday in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Blended
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 30W 20D 16L in their last 66 games (1.67 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 35W 18D 13L in their last 66 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Exeter City's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.94 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Sheffield Wednesday been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sheffield Wednesday in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Exeter City
1
Draws
1
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Sheffield Wednesday?
From 2 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 0, Sheffield Wednesday have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Sheffield Wednesday?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 52%, Sheffield Wednesday 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Exeter City) and 39% (Sheffield Wednesday).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sheffield Wednesday in 36%; Exeter City have failed to score in 27% of games; Sheffield Wednesday in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Sheffield Wednesday?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Exeter City's recent matches and 42% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Sheffield Wednesday usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Exeter City's recent games and 39% of Sheffield Wednesday's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Sheffield Wednesday tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sheffield Wednesday in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Exeter City and Sheffield Wednesday share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St James Park, Regular Season - 21, as Exeter City and Sheffield Wednesday drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 0.89 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.44 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 1.04 / defence 1.27 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.95 / defence 0.67, drawn from 20/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 23% | Draw 27% | Sheffield Wednesday 50%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 48%, Sheffield Wednesday 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.67 PPG, Sheffield Wednesday 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.