Cambridge United 0-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambridge United vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambridge United host Plymouth at Abbey Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Abbey Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Cambridge United are significantly better at Abbey Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Plymouth's 2.10 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Cambridge United's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cambridge United, 0 for Plymouth and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Cambridge United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cambridge United trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Plymouth trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 50% versus Plymouth 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 50% | Plymouth 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.05 xG and Plymouth 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.715 / defence 1.081 | Plymouth attack 1.285 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.192. Cambridge United's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plymouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Cambridge United games / 66 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 24% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 51%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Plymouth 1.96. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cambridge United 20% | Plymouth 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 24% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Cambridge United 1.05 / Plymouth 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 0.715 / def 1.081 | Plymouth attack 1.285 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Plymouth xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Plymouth kick off?
Cambridge United vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 December 2022 at Abbey Stadium.
What was the final score in Cambridge United vs Plymouth?
Cambridge United 0 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Cambridge United vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Plymouth part of?
Cambridge United vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 24% chance of winning, Plymouth a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cambridge United and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Cambridge United 1W | Draws 1 | Plymouth 0W.
What form are Cambridge United and Plymouth in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cambridge United's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Cambridge United's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
24%
4.16
25%
4.05
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
2.71
1.66
Plymouth xG
4.16
24%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
5%
21.79
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.66 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cambridge United come into this having played 66 games, going 21W 15D 30L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.86 PPG from 66 outings (36W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cambridge United's home form reads 12W 9D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.52 points per game from 33 outings (13W 11D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cambridge United are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.62 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 21W 15D 30L in their last 66 games (1.18 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 36W 15D 15L in their last 66 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 1.36 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Cambridge United or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambridge United have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Plymouth in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cambridge United's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambridge United
2
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 1, Plymouth have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Plymouth 3-1 Cambridge United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 39%, Plymouth 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cambridge United) and 54% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cambridge United have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Cambridge United's recent matches and 61% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambridge United vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cambridge United's recent games and 54% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Plymouth tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cambridge United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Abbey Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Cambridge United and Plymouth drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambridge United 1.05 xG and Plymouth 1.66 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cambridge United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Plymouth landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambridge United attack 0.71 / defence 1.08 against Plymouth attack 1.28 / defence 1.16, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambridge United 24% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 51%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambridge United 50%, Plymouth 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambridge United's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plymouth's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.