Lincoln 1-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lincoln at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lincoln vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 8 as Lincoln welcome Accrington ST to LNER Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 1 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Lincoln have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln at LNER Stadium this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 League One matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Lincoln are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lincoln, 2 for Accrington ST and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Accrington ST winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lincoln trading profile (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Accrington ST trading profile (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 56% versus Accrington ST 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 46% | Accrington ST 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.60 xG and Accrington ST 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.944 / defence 0.858 | Accrington ST attack 0.698 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.241. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Lincoln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Lincoln games / 62 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 58% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 17%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Accrington ST 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lincoln (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lincoln 60% | Accrington ST 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 58% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 42% | xG Lincoln 1.60 / Accrington ST 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.944 / def 0.858 | Accrington ST attack 0.698 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Accrington ST xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Accrington ST kick off?
Lincoln vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 November 2022 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Accrington ST?
Lincoln 1 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Lincoln vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Accrington ST part of?
Lincoln vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 58% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lincoln and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Accrington ST?
Record (2 meetings): Lincoln 0W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 2W.
What form are Lincoln and Accrington ST in?
Lincoln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lincoln's attack rating (0.94) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.01
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.34
0.74
Accrington ST xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
3%
28.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.74 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln come into this having played 61 games, going 19W 16D 26L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.26 PPG from 61 outings (21W 14D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.20 PPG, Accrington ST on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lincoln's home form reads 8W 10D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.79 points per game from 29 outings (6W 5D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.26 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 61 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 19W 16D 26L in their last 61 games (1.20 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 21W 14D 26L in their last 61 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Accrington ST away?
Lincoln's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.17 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lincoln and Accrington ST runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Lincoln won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lincoln's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lincoln
1
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 1, Accrington ST have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Accrington ST 0-3 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 55%, Accrington ST 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lincoln) and 55% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 34% of games; Accrington ST in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Lincoln's recent matches and 41% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lincoln's recent games and 55% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln and Accrington ST share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Lincoln and Accrington ST drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.60 xG and Accrington ST 0.74 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against Accrington ST attack 0.70 / defence 1.30, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 58% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 17%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 46%, Accrington ST 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.20 PPG, Accrington ST 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.