Accrington ST 0-1 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sheffield Wednesday make the trip to Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League One, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Accrington ST (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Sheffield Wednesday have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sheffield Wednesday away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sheffield Wednesday are 1.10 PPG clear of Accrington ST in recent League One fixtures (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Accrington ST, 1 for Sheffield Wednesday and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sheffield Wednesday — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 54% versus Sheffield Wednesday 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 57% | Sheffield Wednesday 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.05 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 1.061 / defence 1.338 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.083 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.243. Sheffield Wednesday's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Accrington ST games / 63 Sheffield Wednesday games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 22% | Draw 23% | Sheffield Wednesday 55%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Sheffield Wednesday 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Sheffield Wednesday (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sheffield Wednesday are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Accrington ST 50% | Sheffield Wednesday 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 22% | Draw 23% | Sheffield Wednesday 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Accrington ST 1.05 / Sheffield Wednesday 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 1.061 / def 1.338 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.083 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Sheffield Wednesday xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Accrington ST 0 - 1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 22% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday?
Record (2 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 1 | Sheffield Wednesday 1W.
What form are Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Accrington ST's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Wednesday's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Sheffield Wednesday's attack (1.08x) against Accrington ST's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
22%
4.57
23%
4.33
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.85
1.80
Sheffield Wednesday xG
4.57
22%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
17%
6.05
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
4%
27.62
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.80 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 21W 15D 27L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Wednesday's form line: 33W 17D 13L from 63 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sheffield Wednesday are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Accrington ST.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.65 PPG from 31 outings (14W 9D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Accrington ST are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 13W 8D 10L from 31 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Accrington ST are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.75 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 63 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 21W 15D 27L in their last 63 games (1.24 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 33W 17D 13L in their last 63 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.65 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Sheffield Wednesday been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sheffield Wednesday in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sheffield Wednesday have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sheffield Wednesday won 3-0 on 10 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Wednesday — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
1
Draws
3
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Sheffield Wednesday have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Sheffield Wednesday 3-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 64%, Sheffield Wednesday 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Accrington ST) and 42% (Sheffield Wednesday).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday in 32%; Sheffield Wednesday in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Sheffield Wednesday?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 45% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Sheffield Wednesday usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Accrington ST's recent games and 42% of Sheffield Wednesday's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Sheffield Wednesday tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sheffield Wednesday in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Wednesday edge out Accrington ST 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday beat Accrington ST 0-1 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.05 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.80 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Accrington ST fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sheffield Wednesday landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 1.06 / defence 1.34 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.08 / defence 0.76, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 22% | Draw 23% | Sheffield Wednesday 55%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 57%, Sheffield Wednesday 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.