Port Vale 1-0 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lincoln at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port Vale and Lincoln meet at Vale Park in League One, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port Vale's overall League One record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale's home record at Vale Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lincoln (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lincoln half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 55% versus Lincoln 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 50% | Lincoln 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.24 xG and Lincoln 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.951 / defence 1.225 | Lincoln attack 1.034 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.238. Data: 15 Port Vale games / 60 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 30% | Draw 25% | Lincoln 45%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Lincoln 2.22. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Port Vale 60% | Lincoln 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 30% | Draw 25% | Lincoln 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Port Vale 1.24 / Lincoln 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.951 / def 1.225 | Lincoln attack 1.034 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Lincoln xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Lincoln kick off?
Port Vale vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Lincoln?
Port Vale 1 - 0 Lincoln.
Where is Port Vale vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Lincoln part of?
Port Vale vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 30% chance of winning, Lincoln a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Port Vale and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Lincoln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port Vale and Lincoln in?
Port Vale (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Lincoln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Port Vale's attack rating (0.95) and Lincoln's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (1.03x) against Port Vale's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 15/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
30%
3.31
25%
4.03
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.81
1.57
Lincoln xG
3.31
30%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
6%
15.87
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.57 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port Vale come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 13D 18L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lincoln sit at 1.22 PPG from 60 outings (19W 16D 25L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port Vale carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Lincoln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Port Vale's home form reads 14W 7D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Lincoln have taken 1.27 points per game from 30 outings (11W 5D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port Vale are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.20 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 29W 13D 18L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Lincoln away?
Port Vale's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.63 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lincoln in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lincoln have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Port Vale
1
Draws
4
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Lincoln?
From 6 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Lincoln have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Port Vale 0-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 53%, Lincoln 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Port Vale) and 53% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lincoln in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Lincoln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Port Vale's games and 57% of Lincoln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port Vale vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Port Vale's recent games and 53% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Lincoln tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Lincoln 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Lincoln 1-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.24 xG and Lincoln 1.57 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lincoln landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.95 / defence 1.23 against Lincoln attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 15/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 30% | Draw 25% | Lincoln 45%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Port Vale win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 50%, Lincoln 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lincoln's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.