Morecambe 1-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Morecambe vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Morecambe and Derby meet at Mazuma Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 1 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Morecambe's overall League One record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Morecambe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mazuma Stadium, Morecambe have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Derby have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derby have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Derby arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Morecambe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Morecambe 59% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Morecambe 54% | Derby 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 0.78 xG and Derby 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 0.790 / defence 1.163 | Derby attack 0.772 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.241. Morecambe's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Derby's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Morecambe games / 15 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Morecambe 25% | Draw 31% | Derby 43%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Derby 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Morecambe 50% | Derby 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Mazuma Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 25% | Draw 31% | Derby 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Morecambe 0.78 / Derby 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 0.790 / def 1.163 | Derby attack 0.772 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Derby (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Derby xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Morecambe vs Derby kick off?
Morecambe vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 November 2022 at Mazuma Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Derby?
Morecambe 1 - 1 Derby.
Where is Morecambe vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Derby part of?
Morecambe vs Derby is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 25% chance of winning, Derby a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Morecambe and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Morecambe vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Morecambe and Derby in?
Morecambe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Derby (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Morecambe's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.77x) against Morecambe's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 62/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
25%
3.94
31%
3.20
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Morecambe xG
Total xG
1.89
1.11
Derby xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
20%
5.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 16.8 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.11 for Derby, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Morecambe's recent record stands at 12W 17D 32L from 61 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Morecambe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 24L across 61 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Morecambe heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Morecambe have managed 8W 10D 12L from 30 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 5W 8D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Attack vs Defence
Morecambe are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.05 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 61 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Morecambe and Derby in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 12W 17D 32L in their last 61 games (0.87 PPG), while Derby have gone 21W 16D 24L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Derby away?
Morecambe's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.13 PPG; Derby away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Morecambe or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Morecambe have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Derby in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Morecambe
1
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Derby?
From 2 meetings on record, Morecambe have won 0, Derby have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Derby 5-0 Morecambe.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Derby see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 57%, Derby 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Morecambe) and 30% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Morecambe have failed to score in 27% of games; Derby in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Morecambe play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Morecambe's recent matches and 33% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Morecambe vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Morecambe's recent games and 30% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Morecambe and Derby tend to score early?
Morecambe have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Derby in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Morecambe and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Morecambe and Derby finished level at 1-1 at Mazuma Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 0.78 xG and Derby 1.11 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 0.79 / defence 1.16 against Derby attack 0.77 / defence 0.75, drawn from 62/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 25% | Draw 31% | Derby 43%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 54%, Derby 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.