Exeter City 0-0 Northampton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Exeter City at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Northampton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Exeter City host Northampton at St James Park in League One (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Exeter City stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Exeter City have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Northampton — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Northampton have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Exeter City are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Northampton have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Exeter City.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Exeter City 0–2 Northampton — a Northampton win.
Northampton have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Exeter City in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Northampton in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 43% versus Northampton 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 44% | Northampton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.51 xG and Northampton 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.959 / defence 0.960 | Northampton attack 0.793 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.137. Northampton's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Exeter City's last 75 games and Northampton's last 76.
Result probabilities: Exeter City 53% | Draw 26% | Northampton 21%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 1.90 | Draw 3.85 | Northampton 4.65. Exeter City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Northampton have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 1), but Exeter City carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Exeter City are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Exeter City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Exeter City 20% (last 10 home games) | Northampton 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Northampton | Competition: League One, matchday 32 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 53% | Draw 26% | Northampton 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Exeter City 1.51 / Northampton 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.959 / def 0.960 | Northampton attack 0.793 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Northampton xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Exeter City vs Northampton FAQs
What time does Exeter City vs Northampton kick off?
Exeter City vs Northampton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Northampton?
Exeter City 0 - 0 Northampton.
Where is Exeter City vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Northampton part of?
Exeter City vs Northampton is a League One fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 53% chance of winning, Northampton a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Exeter City and Northampton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Exeter City vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Exeter City's attack rating (0.96) and Northampton's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Exeter City's last 75 games and Northampton's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.85
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.38
0.86
Northampton xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
5%
21.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Exeter City vs Northampton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.86 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Exeter City have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 26W 16D 33L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Northampton's form line: 21W 21D 33L from 75 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Exeter City on 1.25 PPG, Northampton on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Exeter City have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 36 home games (15W 8D 13L).
On the road, Northampton have gone 8W 10D 18L from their last 36 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Exeter City are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.03 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
Exeter City (Home) vs Northampton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Exeter City
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
❓ Exeter City vs Northampton Form FAQs
What form are Exeter City and Northampton in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 26W 16D 33L in their last 75 games (1.25 PPG), while Northampton have gone 21W 21D 33L in their last 75 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Northampton away?
Exeter City's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.47 PPG; Northampton away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Northampton in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Exeter City's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Exeter City
3
Draws
4
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Exeter City vs Northampton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Northampton?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Exeter City have won 1, Northampton have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Northampton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Exeter City 0-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Northampton?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 44%, Northampton 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Exeter City) and 50% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Northampton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Exeter City vs Northampton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Exeter City and Northampton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Exeter City's recent matches and 53% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Exeter City and Northampton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Exeter City's recent games and 50% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Northampton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Exeter City's recent matches and 61% of Northampton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Exeter City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City and Northampton finished level at 0-0 at St James Park, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.51 xG and Northampton 0.86 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Exeter City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Northampton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Northampton attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 75/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 53% | Draw 26% | Northampton 21%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 44%, Northampton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Northampton's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.25 PPG, Northampton 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 32
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →