Exeter City 0-3 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Exeter City face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Exeter City welcome Derby to St James Park in League One (matchday 33). Kick-off is Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Exeter City stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Exeter City's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Derby — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Derby have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Exeter City 1.70 PPG, Derby 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Exeter City's 30% BTTS rate and Derby's 30% (from Exeter City's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Exeter City, 2 for Derby and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2023, ended Exeter City 0–2 Derby — a Derby win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Exeter City trading profile (last 77 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 49% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Derby trading profile (last 77 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 43% versus Derby 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 46% | Derby 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 0.62 xG and Derby 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.654 / defence 0.786 | Derby attack 1.118 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.172. Exeter City's attack rating of 0.654 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.62. Derby bring a tight defence (rating 0.727, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Exeter City's projected output down. Exeter City have a tight defence (rating 0.786), which is pulling Derby's projected output down. Data: built from Exeter City's last 78 games and Derby's last 77.
Result probabilities: Exeter City 22% | Draw 34% | Derby 45%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 4.59 | Draw 2.98 | Derby 2.24. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS Yes probability 30% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Exeter City's lower xG of 0.62 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 77% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Exeter City's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) averaging 1.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Exeter City 30% (last 10 home games) | Derby 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Derby | Competition: League One, matchday 33 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 22% | Draw 34% | Derby 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% (Under 77%) | BTTS Yes 30% (No 70%) | xG Exeter City 0.62 / Derby 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.654 / def 0.786 | Derby attack 1.118 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Derby (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.62
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Derby xG
30%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Exeter City vs Derby FAQs
What time does Exeter City vs Derby kick off?
Exeter City vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Derby?
Exeter City 0 - 3 Derby.
Where is Exeter City vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Derby part of?
Exeter City vs Derby is a League One fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 22% chance of winning, Derby a 45% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Exeter City and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (70%).
Will Exeter City vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (77%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Exeter City's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.62. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Exeter City's last 78 games and Derby's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (18.1%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
22%
4.59
34%
2.98
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.62
Exeter City xG
Total xG
1.65
1.03
Derby xG
4.59
22%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.36
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
54%
1.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.83
24%
4.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.2 | 19.7 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Exeter City vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.8%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.62 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.03 for Derby, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 77 outings, Exeter City have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 26W 16D 35L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 39W 19D 19L from 77 games, 1.77 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Exeter City.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Exeter City have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 39 home games (15W 10D 14L).
On the road, Derby have gone 18W 9D 12L from their last 39 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Exeter City are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.57 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
Exeter City (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Exeter City
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Exeter City vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Exeter City and Derby in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 26W 16D 35L in their last 77 games (1.22 PPG), while Derby have gone 39W 19D 19L in their last 77 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.41 PPG; Derby away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Derby in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Derby have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Feb 2024, when Derby won Exeter City 0-3 Derby.
Exeter City's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Exeter City
1
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Exeter City vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Derby?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Exeter City have won 0, Derby have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2024: Exeter City 0-3 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Exeter City see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 44%, Derby 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Exeter City) and 44% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Derby in 36%; Exeter City have failed to score in 41% of games; Derby in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Exeter City vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Exeter City and Derby matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Exeter City's recent matches and 46% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Exeter City and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Exeter City's recent games and 44% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 49% of Exeter City's recent matches and 64% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derby run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Exeter City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Exeter City 0-3 at St James Park, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 0.62 xG and Derby 1.03 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Derby outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.65 / defence 0.79 against Derby attack 1.12 / defence 0.73, drawn from 78/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 22% | Draw 34% | Derby 45%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 46%, Derby 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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