Burton Albion 0-1 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burton Albion at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Carlisle travel to Pirelli Stadium to take on Burton Albion. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 February 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Burton Albion's home record at Pirelli Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Carlisle have recorded 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Carlisle away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Burton Albion have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Burton Albion have won 0, Carlisle 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Carlisle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Carlisle in-play and half-time data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 47% versus Carlisle 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 47% | Carlisle 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.46 xG and Carlisle 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.765 / defence 0.908 | Carlisle attack 0.764 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.218. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Carlisle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.435 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 79 Burton Albion games / 33 Carlisle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 52% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 22%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Carlisle 4.55. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 30% | Carlisle 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Carlisle | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 52% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Burton Albion 1.46 / Carlisle 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.765 / def 0.908 | Carlisle attack 0.764 / def 1.435 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Carlisle xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Carlisle kick off?
Burton Albion vs Carlisle kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 27 February 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Carlisle?
Burton Albion 0 - 1 Carlisle.
Where is Burton Albion vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Carlisle part of?
Burton Albion vs Carlisle is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 52% chance of winning, Carlisle a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Burton Albion and Carlisle will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Carlisle?
Record (1 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 0 | Carlisle 1W.
What form are Burton Albion and Carlisle in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Carlisle (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.77) and Carlisle's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 79/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.75
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.30
0.84
Carlisle xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
5%
19.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Burton Albion and 0.84 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 25W 19D 35L from 79 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 24W 23D 32L across 79 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.19 PPG, Carlisle on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 15W 11D 13L from 39 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 10W 10D 19L across 39 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.19 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 79 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Carlisle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 25W 19D 35L in their last 79 games (1.19 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 24W 23D 32L in their last 79 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Carlisle away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.44 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Burton Albion
0
Draws
2
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Carlisle?
From 2 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 0, Carlisle have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Carlisle last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2024, when Burton Albion 0-1 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Carlisle?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 44%, Carlisle 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Burton Albion) and 46% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 36% of games; Carlisle in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Carlisle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 51% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Carlisle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Burton Albion's recent games and 46% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Carlisle tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Carlisle in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carlisle defy the odds to beat Burton Albion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.46 xG and Carlisle 0.84 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.77 / defence 0.91 against Carlisle attack 0.76 / defence 1.44, drawn from 79/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 52% | Draw 27% | Carlisle 22%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Carlisle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 47%, Carlisle 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Carlisle's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.19 PPG, Carlisle 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Carlisle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.