Charlton 1-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lincoln (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charlton face Lincoln.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lincoln make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at The Valley this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Lincoln (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lincoln's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Lincoln arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Charlton, 3 for Lincoln and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Lincoln winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (77 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (77 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 65% versus Lincoln 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 53% | Lincoln 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.19 xG and Lincoln 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.059 / defence 1.255 | Lincoln attack 0.840 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.172. Data: 77 Charlton games / 77 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 37%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Lincoln 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lincoln are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 70% | Lincoln 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Charlton 1.19 / Lincoln 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.059 / def 1.255 | Lincoln attack 0.840 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lincoln xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Lincoln kick off?
Charlton vs Lincoln kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Lincoln?
Charlton 1 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Charlton vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Lincoln part of?
Charlton vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 35% chance of winning, Lincoln a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Charlton and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Lincoln?
Record (5 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 1 | Lincoln 3W.
What form are Charlton and Lincoln in?
Charlton (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Lincoln (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.06x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.84x) against Charlton's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 77/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.64
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.42
1.24
Lincoln xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Charlton and 1.24 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 77 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 23W 24D 30L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Lincoln's form line: 24W 31D 22L from 77 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Charlton against 1.34 for Lincoln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.41 PPG from 39 outings (15W 10D 14L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 12W 11D 16L from 39 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.04 scored and 1.01 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lincoln in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 23W 24D 30L in their last 77 games (1.21 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 24W 31D 22L in their last 77 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Lincoln away?
Charlton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.41 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Charlton or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Lincoln in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Charlton
4
Draws
3
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Lincoln?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Lincoln have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Charlton 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 72%, Lincoln 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Charlton) and 36% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Lincoln in 36%; Lincoln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Lincoln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Charlton's games and 38% of Lincoln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Charlton's recent games and 36% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Lincoln tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Lincoln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton and Lincoln finished level at 1-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.19 xG and Lincoln 1.24 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.06 / defence 1.25 against Lincoln attack 0.84 / defence 0.85, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 35% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 37%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 53%, Lincoln 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Lincoln's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.21 PPG, Lincoln 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.