Derby 1-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Stevenage at Pride Park Stadium in League One (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Derby have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stevenage away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Derby have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Derby's games and 60% of Stevenage's (from Derby's last 10 home games and Stevenage's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Derby have won 0, Stevenage 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Derby 1–3 Stevenage — a Stevenage win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (last 77 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (last 77 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 51% versus Stevenage 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 49% | Stevenage 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.76 xG and Stevenage 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.255 / defence 1.015 | Stevenage attack 1.173 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.193. Derby carry an above-average attack rating of 1.255 — their 1.76 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Derby's last 78 games and Stevenage's last 31.
Result probabilities: Derby 46% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 31%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.18 | Draw 4.32 | Stevenage 3.22. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Derby's last 10 home games and Stevenage's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 70% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 34 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 46% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Derby 1.76 / Stevenage 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.255 / def 1.015 | Stevenage attack 1.173 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Derby (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Stevenage xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Derby vs Stevenage kick off?
Derby vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Stevenage?
Derby 1 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Derby vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Stevenage part of?
Derby vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 46% chance of winning, Stevenage a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Derby and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Derby vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Derby's attack rating (1.25) and Stevenage's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 78 games and Stevenage's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
46%
2.18
23%
4.32
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Derby xG
Total xG
3.18
1.42
Stevenage xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
5%
18.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Derby and 1.42 for Stevenage, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 77 games, going 39W 19D 19L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.79 PPG from 77 outings (39W 21D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.77 PPG, Stevenage on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 20W 10D 7L across their last 37 home games, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.54 points per game from their last 37 away games (15W 12D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.39 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Stevenage in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
Derby (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Derby vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 39W 19D 19L in their last 77 games (1.77 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 39W 21D 17L in their last 77 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Stevenage away?
Derby's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.89 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Derby or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Stevenage in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Derby
0
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Stevenage?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 1, Stevenage have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Derby 1-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 57%, Stevenage 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Derby) and 43% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Stevenage in 32%; Stevenage in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Derby's recent matches and 49% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Derby's recent games and 43% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Derby's recent matches and 78% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Stevenage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Stevenage 1-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.76 xG and Stevenage 1.42 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.25 / defence 1.01 against Stevenage attack 1.17 / defence 1.05, drawn from 78/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 46% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 31%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Stevenage 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.77 PPG, Stevenage 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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