Charlton 1-1 Forest Green – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Forest Green encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Forest Green at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton at The Valley this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley.
Forest Green — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Forest Green have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Forest Green away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Charlton carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Forest Green in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 51% versus Forest Green 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 45% | Forest Green 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 2.25 xG and Forest Green 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.197 / defence 0.920 | Forest Green attack 0.810 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.134. Forest Green bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Charlton games / 7 Forest Green games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 68% | Draw 20% | Forest Green 12%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Forest Green 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 40% | Forest Green 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Forest Green | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 68% | Draw 20% | Forest Green 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 52% | xG Charlton 2.25 / Forest Green 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.197 / def 0.920 | Forest Green attack 0.810 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Charlton (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Forest Green xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Forest Green kick off?
Charlton vs Forest Green kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Forest Green?
Charlton 1 - 1 Forest Green.
Where is Charlton vs Forest Green being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Forest Green part of?
Charlton vs Forest Green is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Forest Green?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 68% chance of winning, Forest Green a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Forest Green?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Charlton and Forest Green will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Forest Green have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Forest Green?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Forest Green in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Forest Green (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.20) and Forest Green's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forest Green's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
68%
1.46
20%
5.05
12%
8.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.09
0.85
Forest Green xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
8.41
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
11%
9.45
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
1%
79.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Forest Green?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Charlton and Forest Green expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Charlton and 0.85 for Forest Green, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Forest Green?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton's recent record stands at 19W 11D 23L from 53 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Forest Green, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 12L across 53 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Forest Green, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Forest Green by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 12W 5D 9L from 26 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Forest Green's away record stands at 10W 12D 4L across 26 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Forest Green are on 1.53 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Forest Green in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Forest Green
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Forest Green in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 19W 11D 23L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Forest Green have gone 25W 16D 12L in their last 53 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Forest Green away?
Forest Green's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.58 PPG; Forest Green away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Charlton or Forest Green been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Forest Green in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
1
Draws
0
Forest Green
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Forest Green?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Forest Green have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Forest Green last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2023, when Forest Green 0-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Forest Green?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 38%, Forest Green 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Charlton) and 50% (Forest Green).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Forest Green away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Forest Green?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Charlton's recent matches and 65% of Forest Green's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Forest Green usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Charlton's recent games and 50% of Forest Green's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Forest Green tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Forest Green in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Forest Green share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton and Forest Green finished level at 1-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 2.25 xG and Forest Green 0.85 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.20 / defence 0.92 against Forest Green attack 0.81 / defence 1.38, drawn from 53/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 68% | Draw 20% | Forest Green 12%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 45%, Forest Green 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Forest Green's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Forest Green arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.