Peterborough 0-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Fleetwood Town in League One, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Peterborough at Weston Homes Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fleetwood Town have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Fleetwood Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Peterborough's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Fleetwood Town half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 43% versus Fleetwood Town 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 62% | Fleetwood Town 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.26 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.373 / defence 0.784 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.028 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.134. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fleetwood Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Peterborough's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 7 Peterborough games / 53 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 67% | Draw 20% | Fleetwood Town 13%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Fleetwood Town 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 40% | Fleetwood Town 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 67% | Draw 20% | Fleetwood Town 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 54% | xG Peterborough 2.26 / Fleetwood Town 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.373 / def 0.784 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.028 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Fleetwood Town xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town?
Peterborough 0 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 67% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Peterborough and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Fleetwood Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Fleetwood Town in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.37x the league average against Fleetwood Town's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fleetwood Town's attack (1.03x) against Peterborough's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 7/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
67%
1.49
20%
4.99
13%
7.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.17
0.91
Fleetwood Town xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
7.66
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
10%
9.54
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
1%
73.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.91 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 53 games, going 13W 10D 30L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 0.91 PPG from 53 outings (9W 21D 23L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Peterborough against 0.91 for Fleetwood Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Peterborough's home form reads 9W 7D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Fleetwood Town have taken 0.73 points per game from 26 outings (3W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.30 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town in 66%.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Early Season
Fleetwood Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 13W 10D 30L in their last 53 games (0.92 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 9W 21D 23L in their last 53 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Peterborough's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.31 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Peterborough go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 4-1 on 16 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fleetwood Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
2
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Fleetwood Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Fleetwood Town have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2024, when Peterborough 4-1 Fleetwood Town.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 42%, Fleetwood Town 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Peterborough) and 58% (Fleetwood Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Peterborough have failed to score in 38% of games; Fleetwood Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Peterborough's games and 69% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Peterborough's matches and 58% of Fleetwood Town's.
Do Peterborough and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fleetwood Town defy the odds to beat Peterborough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fleetwood Town beat Peterborough 0-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.26 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.91 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.37 / defence 0.78 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.03 / defence 1.21, drawn from 7/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 67% | Draw 20% | Fleetwood Town 13%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Fleetwood Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 62%, Fleetwood Town 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 0.92 PPG, Fleetwood Town 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fleetwood Town win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.