Lincoln 2-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lincoln and Derby meet at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Lincoln's overall League One record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lincoln have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lincoln at LNER Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derby have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Derby have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Derby have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 60% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 51% | Derby 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.07 xG and Derby 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.943 / defence 1.113 | Derby attack 0.570 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.134. Data: 53 Lincoln games / 7 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 42% | Draw 35% | Derby 23%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Derby 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Derby's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 60% | Derby 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 42% | Draw 35% | Derby 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Lincoln 1.07 / Derby 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.943 / def 1.113 | Derby attack 0.570 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Derby xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Derby kick off?
Lincoln vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Derby?
Lincoln 2 - 0 Derby.
Where is Lincoln vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Derby part of?
Lincoln vs Derby is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 42% chance of winning, Derby a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Lincoln and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lincoln and Derby in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Derby (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lincoln's attack rating (0.94) and Derby's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.57x) against Lincoln's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 53/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
42%
2.37
35%
2.89
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Lincoln xG
Total xG
1.79
0.72
Derby xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.72 for Derby, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Lincoln have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 15W 14D 24L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lincoln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby's form line: 17W 15D 21L from 53 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Lincoln against 1.25 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lincoln have posted 1.12 PPG from 26 outings (7W 8D 11L).
On the road, Derby have gone 3W 8D 15L from 26 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lincoln are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.98 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lincoln have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Derby in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 15W 14D 24L in their last 53 games (1.11 PPG), while Derby have gone 17W 15D 21L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Derby away?
Lincoln's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.12 PPG; Derby away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Derby in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lincoln
2
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 1, Derby have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Lincoln 0-0 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Derby see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 58%, Derby 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lincoln) and 31% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 35% of games; Derby in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Lincoln's recent matches and 38% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lincoln's recent games and 31% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Derby tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Derby in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Derby 2-0 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.07 xG and Derby 0.72 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lincoln beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Derby attack 0.57 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 42% | Draw 35% | Derby 23%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 51%, Derby 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.11 PPG, Derby 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.