Bolton 3-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bolton vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 7 as Bolton welcome Charlton to University of Bolton Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bolton stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bolton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bolton's home record at University of Bolton Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bolton are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bolton, 0 for Charlton and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Bolton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bolton trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Charlton trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 44% versus Charlton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 48% | Charlton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.33 xG and Charlton 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.089 / defence 0.879 | Charlton attack 0.924 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.111. Data: 52 Bolton games / 52 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 45% | Draw 31% | Charlton 24%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Charlton 4.17. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Bolton 60% | Charlton 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: University of Bolton Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 45% | Draw 31% | Charlton 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Bolton 1.33 / Charlton 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.089 / def 0.879 | Charlton attack 0.924 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Bolton (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Charlton xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Charlton kick off?
Bolton vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at University of Bolton Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Charlton?
Bolton 3 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Bolton vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at University of Bolton Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Charlton part of?
Bolton vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 45% chance of winning, Charlton a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bolton and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Bolton 2W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Bolton and Charlton in?
Bolton (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bolton's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
45%
2.21
31%
3.24
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.23
0.90
Charlton xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
6%
15.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bolton and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Bolton and 0.90 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 23W 12D 17L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bolton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charlton's form line: 19W 11D 22L from 52 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bolton on 1.56 PPG, Charlton on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bolton have posted 1.88 PPG from 26 outings (14W 7D 5L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 7W 6D 13L from 26 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bolton are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Early Season
Charlton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Charlton in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 23W 12D 17L in their last 52 games (1.56 PPG), while Charlton have gone 19W 11D 22L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Charlton away?
Bolton's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.88 PPG; Charlton away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Bolton or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Charlton in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when Bolton won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bolton's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bolton
1
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Bolton have won 5, Charlton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2025, when Bolton 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Charlton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 46%, Charlton 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Bolton) and 50% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bolton's recent matches and 62% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Bolton's recent games and 50% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Charlton tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Charlton in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bolton cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Charlton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Charlton 3-1 at University of Bolton Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.33 xG and Charlton 0.90 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.09 / defence 0.88 against Charlton attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 45% | Draw 31% | Charlton 24%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 48%, Charlton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.56 PPG, Charlton 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.