Charlton 2-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Cheltenham at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cheltenham — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Charlton are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Charlton, 2 for Cheltenham and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 64% versus Cheltenham 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 54% | Cheltenham 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.92 xG and Cheltenham 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.257 / defence 1.089 | Cheltenham attack 0.818 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.144. Charlton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Charlton games / 63 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 58% | Draw 22% | Cheltenham 19%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Cheltenham 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Cheltenham lead the H2H ledger, but Charlton carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 70% | Cheltenham 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 58% | Draw 22% | Cheltenham 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Charlton 1.92 / Cheltenham 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.257 / def 1.089 | Cheltenham attack 0.818 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Charlton (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Cheltenham xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Cheltenham kick off?
Charlton vs Cheltenham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Charlton 2 - 1 Cheltenham.
Where is Charlton vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Cheltenham part of?
Charlton vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 58% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Charlton and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cheltenham?
Record (4 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 2 | Cheltenham 2W.
What form are Charlton and Cheltenham in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Cheltenham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.26x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.47
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.94
1.02
Cheltenham xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
3%
34.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Charlton and 1.02 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 22W 19D 22L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cheltenham's form line: 17W 15D 31L from 63 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.35 PPG, Cheltenham on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.52 PPG from 31 outings (13W 8D 10L).
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 7W 5D 19L from 31 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 0.86 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Cheltenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 22W 19D 22L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 17W 15D 31L in their last 63 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Cheltenham away?
Charlton's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.52 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Charlton or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Cheltenham runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Charlton's record when hosting Cheltenham specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Charlton
2
Draws
2
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cheltenham?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Cheltenham have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2024, when Cheltenham 1-3 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 71%, Cheltenham 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Charlton) and 45% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Cheltenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Charlton's recent matches and 29% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Charlton's recent games and 45% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Cheltenham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Cheltenham 2-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.92 xG and Cheltenham 1.02 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.26 / defence 1.09 against Cheltenham attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 58% | Draw 22% | Cheltenham 19%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 54%, Cheltenham 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Cheltenham's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.35 PPG, Cheltenham 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.