Charlton 2-2 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Charlton (64%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Charlton face Cambridge United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cambridge United travel to The Valley to take on Charlton in League One (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Charlton stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Charlton have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Cambridge United have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Charlton carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
Charlton hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Cambridge United and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Charlton 2–1 Cambridge United — a Charlton win.
The head-to-head data gives Charlton an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 64% versus Cambridge United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 55% | Cambridge United 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.99 xG and Cambridge United 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.263 / defence 1.103 | Cambridge United attack 0.671 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.146. Charlton carry an above-average attack rating of 1.263 — their 1.99 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Cambridge United's attack rating of 0.671 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Charlton's last 64 games and Cambridge United's last 65.
Result probabilities: Charlton 64% | Draw 21% | Cambridge United 15%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.57 | Draw 4.69 | Cambridge United 6.73. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (64%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Cambridge United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charlton 70% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, matchday 21 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 64% | Draw 21% | Cambridge United 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Charlton 1.99 / Cambridge United 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.263 / def 1.103 | Cambridge United attack 0.671 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Charlton (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Cambridge United xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Cambridge United FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Cambridge United kick off?
Charlton vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Charlton 2 - 2 Cambridge United.
Where is Charlton vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Cambridge United part of?
Charlton vs Cambridge United is a League One fixture (matchday 21) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 64% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charlton and Cambridge United will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Charlton vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charlton's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 64 games and Cambridge United's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.69
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.84
0.85
Cambridge United xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
49.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Cambridge United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Charlton and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Charlton and 0.85 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 23W 19D 22L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Cambridge United's form line: 17W 12D 35L from 64 games, 0.98 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.38 PPG, Cambridge United on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 32 home games (14W 8D 10L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 5W 5D 22L from their last 32 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.84 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
Charlton (Home) vs Cambridge United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Charlton vs Cambridge United Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 23W 19D 22L in their last 64 games (1.38 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 17W 12D 35L in their last 64 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Cambridge United away?
Charlton's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.56 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charlton have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Charlton's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
3
Draws
0
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Cambridge United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cambridge United?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 5, Cambridge United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Cambridge United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: Cambridge United 0-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Cambridge United?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 72%, Cambridge United 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Charlton) and 47% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Cambridge United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Cambridge United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Charlton's games and 44% of Cambridge United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charlton and Cambridge United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Charlton's recent games and 47% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Cambridge United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Charlton's recent matches and 66% of Cambridge United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Cambridge United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 21, as Charlton and Cambridge United drew 2-2 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.99 xG and Cambridge United 0.85 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cambridge United outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.26 / defence 1.10 against Cambridge United attack 0.67 / defence 1.15, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 64% | Draw 21% | Cambridge United 15%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 55%, Cambridge United 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Cambridge United's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.38 PPG, Cambridge United 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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