Peterborough 0-3 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Cheltenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cheltenham make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Cheltenham have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in League One this season, Cheltenham have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Peterborough. A 1.00 PPG lead over Cheltenham (1.90 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Peterborough lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 3–2 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (80 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cheltenham — key trading statistics (80 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 45% versus Cheltenham 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Cheltenham 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.83 xG and Cheltenham 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.184 / defence 1.293 | Cheltenham attack 0.823 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.035. Data: 34 Peterborough games / 81 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 54% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 22%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Cheltenham 4.55. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 50% | Cheltenham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 54% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Peterborough 1.83 / Cheltenham 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.184 / def 1.293 | Cheltenham attack 0.823 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cheltenham xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Cheltenham kick off?
Peterborough vs Cheltenham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Cheltenham?
Peterborough 0 - 3 Cheltenham.
Where is Peterborough vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Cheltenham part of?
Peterborough vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 54% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Peterborough and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cheltenham?
Record (1 meetings): Peterborough 1W | Draws 0 | Cheltenham 0W.
What form are Peterborough and Cheltenham in?
Peterborough (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.18) and Cheltenham's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (0.82x) against Peterborough's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 34/81 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.19
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.93
1.10
Cheltenham xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
4%
27.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.10 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 80 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 26W 13D 41L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Cheltenham's form line: 23W 23D 34L from 80 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Peterborough against 1.15 for Cheltenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.50 PPG from 40 outings (17W 9D 14L).
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 7W 12D 21L from 40 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.14 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 80 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Cheltenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 26W 13D 41L in their last 80 games (1.14 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 23W 23D 34L in their last 80 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Cheltenham away?
Peterborough's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.50 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cheltenham won 0-3 on 11 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cheltenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Peterborough
0
Draws
2
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cheltenham?
From 4 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Cheltenham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Cheltenham 2-0 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 45%, Cheltenham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Peterborough) and 52% (Cheltenham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 35% of games; Cheltenham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Cheltenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Peterborough's recent matches and 52% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Peterborough's matches and 52% of Cheltenham's.
Do Peterborough and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cheltenham run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Peterborough 0-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.83 xG and Cheltenham 1.10 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Cheltenham outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.18 / defence 1.29 against Cheltenham attack 0.82 / defence 1.19, drawn from 34/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 54% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 22%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Cheltenham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Cheltenham 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cheltenham's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.14 PPG, Cheltenham 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.