Sunderland 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees AFC Wimbledon travel to Stadium of Light to take on Sunderland. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sunderland — All Games: 2W 0D 1L from 3 League One outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sunderland have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 1W 2D 0L from 3 League One matches — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sunderland 2.00 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.67 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sunderland register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, AFC Wimbledon in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Sunderland in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sunderland 67% and AFC Wimbledon 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sunderland 67% | AFC Wimbledon 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.19 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.088 / defence 1.156 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.984 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 0.953 / away 0.975. Data: 3 Sunderland games / 3 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 38% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 34%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | AFC Wimbledon 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sunderland 67% | AFC Wimbledon 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 38% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Sunderland 1.19 / AFC Wimbledon 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.088 / def 1.156 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.984 / def 1.144 | league avg home 0.953 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.11
AFC Wimbledon xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon?
Sunderland 1 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 38% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sunderland and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and AFC Wimbledon in?
Sunderland (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.09) and AFC Wimbledon's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.52
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.30
1.11
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sunderland and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.11 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sunderland's recent record stands at 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 0L across 3 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 2.00 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Sunderland are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded. AFC Wimbledon's attacking output running into Sunderland's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sunderland have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; AFC Wimbledon in 100%.
Last 3 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Early Season
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sunderland
1
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and AFC Wimbledon?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and AFC Wimbledon?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sunderland at 67%, AFC Wimbledon at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sunderland and 67% for AFC Wimbledon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play AFC Wimbledon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sunderland's games and 100% of AFC Wimbledon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sunderland vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sunderland's matches and 67% of AFC Wimbledon's.
Do Sunderland and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out AFC Wimbledon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.19 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.11 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.09 / defence 1.16 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.98 / defence 1.14, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 38% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 34%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 67%, AFC Wimbledon 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 2.00 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.