Charlton 4-4 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 39%, yet in-form Ipswich provide a compelling counter-argument — this Charlton vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charlton and Ipswich meet at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton at The Valley this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Ipswich have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ipswich's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in League One this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ipswich are 0.90 PPG clear of Charlton in recent League One fixtures (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charlton have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ipswich in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Charlton lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 0–4 with Ipswich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Ipswich half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 52% versus Ipswich 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 44% | Ipswich 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.48 xG and Ipswich 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.255 / defence 0.918 | Ipswich attack 1.264 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.238. Charlton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ipswich have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Charlton games / 62 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 39% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 37%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Ipswich 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ipswich (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 60% | Ipswich 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 39% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Charlton 1.48 / Ipswich 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.255 / def 0.918 | Ipswich attack 1.264 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Ipswich xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Ipswich kick off?
Charlton vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Ipswich?
Charlton 4 - 4 Ipswich.
Where is Charlton vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Ipswich part of?
Charlton vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 39% chance of winning, Ipswich a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Charlton and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Ipswich?
Record (2 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 0 | Ipswich 1W.
What form are Charlton and Ipswich in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Ipswich (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.25) and Ipswich's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.26x) against Charlton's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
39%
2.59
25%
4.05
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.91
1.44
Ipswich xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Charlton and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Charlton and 1.44 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charlton's recent record stands at 22W 15D 25L from 62 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have gone 29W 19D 14L across 62 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Charlton against 1.71 for Ipswich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 14W 7D 10L from 31 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ipswich's away record stands at 13W 8D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.58 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 22W 15D 25L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 29W 19D 14L in their last 62 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Ipswich away?
Charlton's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.58 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Charlton or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ipswich in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ipswich won 6-0 on 15 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Charlton
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Ipswich?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Charlton 1-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 42%, Ipswich 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Charlton) and 45% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ipswich in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Charlton's recent matches and 52% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Charlton's recent games and 45% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Ipswich tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Ipswich share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 17, as Charlton and Ipswich drew 4-4 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.48 xG and Ipswich 1.44 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ipswich outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.25 / defence 0.92 against Ipswich attack 1.26 / defence 0.93, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 39% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 37%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 44%, Ipswich 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Ipswich's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.31 PPG, Ipswich 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.