Burton Albion 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burton Albion face AFC Wimbledon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burton Albion host AFC Wimbledon at Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 43). Kick-off is Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Burton Albion have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Burton Albion have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, AFC Wimbledon stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
AFC Wimbledon away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Burton Albion at 1.20 PPG versus AFC Wimbledon's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Burton Albion, 0 for AFC Wimbledon and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Burton Albion 1–0 AFC Wimbledon — a Burton Albion win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Burton Albion trading profile (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 50% versus AFC Wimbledon 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 52% | AFC Wimbledon 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.66 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.933 / defence 1.073 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.891 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.117. AFC Wimbledon's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Burton Albion's projected output up. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 88 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 41.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 51% | Draw 24% | AFC Wimbledon 24%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 1.95 | Draw 4.11 | AFC Wimbledon 4.10. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Burton Albion's last 10 home games and AFC Wimbledon's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 60% (last 10 home games) | AFC Wimbledon 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, matchday 43 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 51% | Draw 24% | AFC Wimbledon 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Burton Albion 1.66 / AFC Wimbledon 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.933 / def 1.073 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.891 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.07
AFC Wimbledon xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Burton Albion 1 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon is a League One fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 51% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 88 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.11
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.73
1.07
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
5%
21.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.07 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 23W 26D 39L from 88 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 36W 21D 31L across 88 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.08 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 14W 10D 20L from their last 44 home games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 14W 12D 18L across their last 44 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.18 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Burton Albion (Home) vs AFC Wimbledon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 23W 26D 39L in their last 88 games (1.08 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 36W 21D 31L in their last 88 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
AFC Wimbledon's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.18 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 2 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Burton Albion have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Sep 2026, when Burton Albion won Burton Albion 4-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Burton Albion's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Burton Albion
2
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 3, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2026: Burton Albion 4-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 52%, AFC Wimbledon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Burton Albion) and 43% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 34% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 46% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Burton Albion's recent games and 43% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 57% of AFC Wimbledon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out AFC Wimbledon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.66 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.07 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.89 / defence 1.29, drawn from 88/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 51% | Draw 24% | AFC Wimbledon 24%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 52%, AFC Wimbledon 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.08 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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