Bradford 1-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Plymouth at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Plymouth encounter.

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Full Analysis

Valley Parade plays host to Bradford versus Plymouth in League One (matchday 40). Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Bradford have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bradford's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bradford are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Plymouth (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Plymouth have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Plymouth are 0.60 PPG clear of Bradford over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Bradford, 0 for Plymouth and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Bradford 1–0 Plymouth — a Bradford win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Bradford half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 54% versus Plymouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 49% | Plymouth 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 0.94 xG and Plymouth 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.810 / defence 0.785 | Plymouth attack 1.420 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.171. Plymouth have an above-average attack rating of 1.420, which lifts their away xG to 1.31. Bradford have a tight defence (rating 0.785), which is pulling Plymouth's projected output down. Data: built from Bradford's last 43 games and Plymouth's last 43.

Result probabilities: Bradford 27% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 45%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 3.71 | Draw 3.56 | Plymouth 2.23. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bradford 30% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 50% (last 10 away games).

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