Bradford 0-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bradford face Bolton.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bradford host Bolton at Valley Parade in League One (Semi-finals). Kick-off is Thursday 14 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Bradford — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bradford at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bradford are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Bolton have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bolton away from home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bradford at 1.30 PPG versus Bolton's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Bradford, 1 for Bolton and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2026, ended Bradford 0–1 Bolton — a Bolton win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bradford in-play tendencies (last 93 games, 46 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Bolton in-play tendencies (last 93 games, 46 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 55% versus Bolton 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 48% | Bolton 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.03 xG and Bolton 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.811 / defence 0.775 | Bolton attack 0.965 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.238. Bradford have a tight defence (rating 0.775), which is pulling Bolton's projected output down. Data: built from Bradford's last 46 games and Bolton's last 92.
Result probabilities: Bradford 37% | Draw 31% | Bolton 32%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.69 | Draw 3.21 | Bolton 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bradford's last 10 home games and Bolton's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bradford 40% (last 10 home games) | Bolton 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Semi-finals | Venue: Valley Parade • Kick-off: Thursday 14 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 37% | Draw 31% | Bolton 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Bradford 1.03 / Bolton 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.811 / def 0.775 | Bolton attack 0.965 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Bradford (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bolton xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bradford vs Bolton FAQs
What time does Bradford vs Bolton kick off?
Bradford vs Bolton kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Thursday 14 May 2026 at Valley Parade.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Bolton?
Bradford 0 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Bradford vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Valley Parade.
What competition is Bradford vs Bolton part of?
Bradford vs Bolton is a League One fixture (Semi-finals) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 37% chance of winning, Bolton a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bradford and Bolton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Bradford vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.81x the league average against Bolton's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bradford's last 46 games and Bolton's last 92 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.21
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Bradford xG
Total xG
1.96
0.93
Bolton xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bradford vs Bolton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Bradford and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Bradford and 0.93 for Bolton, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bradford's recent record stands at 44W 23D 26L from 93 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Bolton, meanwhile, have gone 40W 26D 27L across 93 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.67 PPG, Bolton on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bradford have managed 32W 9D 5L from their last 46 home games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Bradford are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bolton's away record stands at 15W 14D 17L across their last 46 away games, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bradford are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.48 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bolton in 60%.
Last 93 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
Bradford (Home) vs Bolton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bradford
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Bradford vs Bolton Form FAQs
What form are Bradford and Bolton in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 44W 23D 26L in their last 93 games (1.67 PPG), while Bolton have gone 40W 26D 27L in their last 93 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Bolton away?
Bradford's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.28 PPG; Bolton away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Bradford or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bolton in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2025. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 14 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bolton have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Bradford's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bradford
2
Draws
2
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Bradford vs Bolton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Bolton?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bradford have won 0, Bolton have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Bolton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 May 2026: Bradford 0-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 35% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 50%, Bolton 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bradford) and 44% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bolton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bradford vs Bolton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bradford and Bolton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bradford's games and 61% of Bolton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bradford and Bolton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bradford's recent games and 44% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Bolton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Bradford's recent matches and 65% of Bolton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bolton defy the odds to beat Bradford 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Bradford 0-1 at Valley Parade, Semi-finals, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.03 xG and Bolton 0.93 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bradford fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.81 / defence 0.78 against Bolton attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 37% | Draw 31% | Bolton 32%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bolton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 48%, Bolton 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bolton's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.67 PPG, Bolton 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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