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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Stevenage in League One, Semi-finals. Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Form

Stockport County (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Stevenage have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Stevenage's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Stockport County against 1.80 for Stevenage. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stockport County lead 3W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Stockport County winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Stockport County — key trading statistics (93 games, 46 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Stevenage — key trading statistics (93 games, 46 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Stevenage 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.77 xG and Stevenage 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.177 / defence 0.972 | Stevenage attack 0.731 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.238. Data: 92 Stockport County games / 92 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 58% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 18%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Stevenage 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Stevenage 50%.

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