Bolton 5-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 49%, yet in-form Stevenage provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bolton vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bolton and Stevenage meet at Toughsheet Community Stadium in League One (matchday 40). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Bolton's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bolton's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bolton are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Stevenage have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stevenage's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Stevenage arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Bolton, 0 for Stevenage and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2026, ended Bolton 0–0 Stevenage — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bolton — key trading statistics (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Stevenage — key trading statistics (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 59% versus Stevenage 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 52% | Stevenage 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.40 xG and Stevenage 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.092 / defence 1.043 | Stevenage attack 0.750 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.124. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Bolton's last 88 games and Stevenage's last 87.
Result probabilities: Bolton 49% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 24%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 2.04 | Draw 3.66 | Stevenage 4.22. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bolton as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stevenage (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bolton 70% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 40 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 49% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Bolton 1.40 / Stevenage 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.092 / def 1.043 | Stevenage attack 0.750 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Bolton (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Stevenage xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bolton vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Bolton vs Stevenage kick off?
Bolton vs Stevenage kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Stevenage?
Bolton 5 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Bolton vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Stevenage part of?
Bolton vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 40) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 49% chance of winning, Stevenage a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bolton and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Bolton vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bolton's attack rating (1.09) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.75x) against Bolton's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Bolton's last 88 games and Stevenage's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.66
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.27
0.88
Stevenage xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
6%
17.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bolton vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bolton and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Bolton and 0.88 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 87 outings, Bolton have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 37W 24D 26L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Stevenage's form line: 34W 22D 31L from 87 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Bolton against 1.43 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bolton have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 43 home games (23W 11D 9L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 13W 11D 19L from their last 43 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bolton are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.98 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
Bolton (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bolton
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Bolton vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Bolton and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 37W 24D 26L in their last 87 games (1.55 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 34W 22D 31L in their last 87 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Stevenage away?
Bolton's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.86 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Bolton or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Stevenage in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Bolton and Stevenage, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 14 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bolton won Bolton 5-1 Stevenage on 14 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bolton have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bolton
3
Draws
0
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Bolton vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Stevenage?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bolton have won 3, Stevenage have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 April 2026: Bolton 5-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Stevenage?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 58%, Stevenage 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Bolton) and 35% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 37%; Bolton have failed to score in 26% of games; Stevenage in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bolton vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bolton and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bolton's recent matches and 37% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bolton and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Bolton's recent games and 35% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Bolton's recent matches and 46% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bolton run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Stevenage 5-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.40 xG and Stevenage 0.88 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Bolton beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against Stevenage attack 0.75 / defence 0.92, drawn from 88/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 49% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 24%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 52%, Stevenage 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.55 PPG, Stevenage 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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