Blackpool 1-0 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackpool vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mansfield Town make the trip to Bloomfield Road to face Blackpool in League One (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Blackpool's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Blackpool at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Mansfield Town (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Mansfield Town away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Mansfield Town arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Mansfield Town edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2025, ended Blackpool 0–2 Mansfield Town — a Mansfield Town win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Blackpool — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackpool 57% versus Mansfield Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackpool 59% | Mansfield Town 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Blackpool surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Mansfield Town have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Mansfield Town surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Blackpool recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackpool 1.28 xG and Mansfield Town 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackpool attack 0.987 / defence 1.270 | Mansfield Town attack 0.958 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.133. Blackpool's defence rating of 1.270 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mansfield Town's projected output up. Data: built from Blackpool's last 77 games and Mansfield Town's last 75.
Result probabilities: Blackpool 35% | Draw 26% | Mansfield Town 39%. Fair-value odds: Blackpool 2.89 | Draw 3.84 | Mansfield Town 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mansfield Town are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Blackpool 50% (last 10 home games) | Mansfield Town 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackpool vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, matchday 33 | Venue: Bloomfield Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackpool 35% | Draw 26% | Mansfield Town 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Blackpool 1.28 / Mansfield Town 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Blackpool attack 0.987 / def 1.270 | Mansfield Town attack 0.958 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Blackpool xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Mansfield Town xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Blackpool vs Mansfield Town FAQs
What time does Blackpool vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Blackpool vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Bloomfield Road.
What was the final score in Blackpool vs Mansfield Town?
Blackpool 1 - 0 Mansfield Town.
Where is Blackpool vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Bloomfield Road.
What competition is Blackpool vs Mansfield Town part of?
Blackpool vs Mansfield Town is a League One fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackpool vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Blackpool a 35% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackpool vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Blackpool and Mansfield Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Blackpool vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Blackpool's attack rating (0.99) and Mansfield Town's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.96x) against Blackpool's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Blackpool's last 77 games and Mansfield Town's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
35%
2.89
26%
3.84
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Blackpool xG
Total xG
2.65
1.38
Mansfield Town xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Blackpool vs Mansfield Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackpool vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Blackpool and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Blackpool and 1.38 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackpool vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Blackpool's recent record stands at 26W 22D 27L from 75 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 25W 18D 32L across 75 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Blackpool against 1.24 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Blackpool have managed 13W 14D 10L from their last 37 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 11W 10D 16L across their last 37 away games, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Blackpool are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.29 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 60%.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackpool
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
Blackpool (Home) vs Mansfield Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Blackpool
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Blackpool vs Mansfield Town Form FAQs
What form are Blackpool and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Blackpool have gone 26W 22D 27L in their last 75 games (1.33 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 25W 18D 32L in their last 75 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackpool at home or Mansfield Town away?
Blackpool's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackpool at home: 1.43 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won Blackpool 1-4 Mansfield Town on 24 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Blackpool have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Blackpool
1
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Blackpool vs Mansfield Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Blackpool and Mansfield Town?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Blackpool have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Blackpool and Mansfield Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Blackpool 1-4 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Blackpool and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackpool 62%, Mansfield Town 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Blackpool and 57% for Mansfield Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackpool home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Blackpool vs Mansfield Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Blackpool and Mansfield Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Blackpool's games and 62% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Blackpool and Mansfield Town matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Blackpool's matches and 57% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Blackpool and Mansfield Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Blackpool's recent matches and 81% of Mansfield Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Blackpool defy the odds to beat Mansfield Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackpool beat Mansfield Town 1-0 at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 1.28 xG and Mansfield Town 1.38 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mansfield Town landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 0.99 / defence 1.27 against Mansfield Town attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 77/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackpool 35% | Draw 26% | Mansfield Town 39%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Blackpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 59%, Mansfield Town 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackpool's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackpool 1.33 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackpool win broke the near-deadlock. Blackpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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