AFC Wimbledon 3-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AFC Wimbledon face Bradford.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon and Bradford meet at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League One (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
AFC Wimbledon at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Bradford's record over their last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bradford away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.50 for Bradford. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for AFC Wimbledon, 2 for Bradford and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended AFC Wimbledon 2–3 Bradford — a Bradford win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 38% versus Bradford 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 38% | Bradford 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.01 xG and Bradford 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.653 / defence 1.011 | Bradford attack 0.760 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.128. AFC Wimbledon's attack rating of 0.653 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Bradford's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from AFC Wimbledon's last 31 games and Bradford's last 31.
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 38% | Draw 32% | Bradford 30%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.64 | Draw 3.13 | Bradford 3.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AFC Wimbledon's last 10 home games and Bradford's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AFC Wimbledon 40% (last 10 home games) | Bradford 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford | Competition: League One, matchday 34 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 38% | Draw 32% | Bradford 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.01 / Bradford 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.653 / def 1.011 | Bradford attack 0.760 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Bradford xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford FAQs
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
AFC Wimbledon 3 - 1 Bradford.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford is a League One fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 38% chance of winning, Bradford a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Bradford will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 0.65x the league average against Bradford's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.76x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from AFC Wimbledon's last 31 games and Bradford's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
38%
2.64
32%
3.13
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
1.87
0.87
Bradford xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.87 for Bradford, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AFC Wimbledon come into this having played 77 games, going 32W 19D 26L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Bradford sit at 1.73 PPG from 77 outings (38W 19D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.73 for Bradford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AFC Wimbledon's home form reads 19W 8D 11L across their last 38 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Bradford have taken 1.05 points per game from their last 38 away games (9W 13D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.35 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Bradford in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon (Home) vs Bradford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford Form FAQs
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Bradford in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 32W 19D 26L in their last 77 games (1.49 PPG), while Bradford have gone 38W 19D 20L in their last 77 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Bradford away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.71 PPG; Bradford away: 1.05 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bradford in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between AFC Wimbledon and Bradford, the earliest from September 2022. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
4
Draws
2
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Bradford?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Bradford have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Bradford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: AFC Wimbledon 3-1 Bradford.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 26%, Bradford 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (AFC Wimbledon) and 50% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 32% of games; Bradford in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AFC Wimbledon vs Bradford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AFC Wimbledon and Bradford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 58% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AFC Wimbledon and Bradford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 50% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Bradford matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 74% of Bradford's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Wimbledon cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bradford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Bradford 3-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.01 xG and Bradford 0.87 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.65 / defence 1.01 against Bradford attack 0.76 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 38% | Draw 32% | Bradford 30%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 38%, Bradford 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.49 PPG, Bradford 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Bradford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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