Bournemouth 1-2 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Preston encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vitality Stadium plays host to Bournemouth versus Preston in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Wednesday 3 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bournemouth have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium this season: 5W 2D 0L from 7 home games — 2.43 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Preston's overall Championship record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Bournemouth's favour (2.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Preston half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 40% versus Preston 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 53% | Preston 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.88 xG and Preston 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.345 / defence 1.025 | Preston attack 0.688 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.102. Bournemouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Preston bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Bournemouth games / 15 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 63% | Draw 23% | Preston 14%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Preston 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bournemouth 71% | Preston 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 63% | Draw 23% | Preston 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG Bournemouth 1.88 / Preston 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.345 / def 1.025 | Preston attack 0.688 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Preston xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Preston kick off?
Bournemouth vs Preston kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 3 November 2021 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Preston?
Bournemouth 1 - 2 Preston.
Where is Bournemouth vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Preston part of?
Bournemouth vs Preston is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 63% chance of winning, Preston a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bournemouth and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Preston?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bournemouth and Preston in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Preston (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (1.34) and Preston's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.69x) against Bournemouth's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.28
14%
7.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.66
0.78
Preston xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
7.18
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
2%
47.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Bournemouth and 0.78 for Preston, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Preston?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Bournemouth have picked up 2.47 PPG on a 11W 4D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Preston's form line: 4W 6D 5L from 15 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bournemouth are the form team by 1.27 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Preston.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bournemouth have posted 2.43 PPG from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L).
On the road, Preston have gone 0W 3D 4L from 7 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Preston's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bournemouth are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.53 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.07 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Preston in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 11W 4D 0L in their last 15 games (2.47 PPG), while Preston have gone 4W 6D 5L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Preston away?
Bournemouth's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 2.43 PPG; Preston away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Preston in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bournemouth
0
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Preston?
From 2 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 0, Preston have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Preston 2-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Preston?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Preston see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 71%, Preston 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Bournemouth and 43% for Preston. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Preston in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Preston?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Bournemouth's games and 43% of Preston's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bournemouth vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Bournemouth's matches and 43% of Preston's.
Do Bournemouth and Preston tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Preston in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Preston defy the odds to beat Bournemouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Bournemouth 1-2 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.88 xG and Preston 0.78 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bournemouth fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Preston outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.34 / defence 1.02 against Preston attack 0.69 / defence 1.28, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 63% | Draw 23% | Preston 14%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Preston win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 53%, Preston 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Preston's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Preston winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Preston (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.