Nottingham Forest 1-1 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sheffield Utd at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nottingham Forest host Sheffield Utd at The City Ground in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 2 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 5L across 7 games at The City Ground this term (0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.57 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The City Ground this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sheffield Utd stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sheffield Utd have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nottingham Forest at 1.70 PPG versus Sheffield Utd's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Sheffield Utd in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nottingham Forest 67% and Sheffield Utd 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 60% | Sheffield Utd 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.13 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.783 / defence 1.544 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.917 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.113. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sheffield Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Nottingham Forest's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Nottingham Forest games / 15 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 27% | Draw 26% | Sheffield Utd 47%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Sheffield Utd 2.13. Sheffield Utd hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sheffield Utd are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Utd offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 71% | Sheffield Utd 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 27% | Draw 26% | Sheffield Utd 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.13 / Sheffield Utd 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.783 / def 1.544 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.917 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Utd (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Sheffield Utd xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 27% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Utd?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Utd in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.78) and Sheffield Utd's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Utd's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Utd Win
27%
3.74
26%
3.81
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.71
1.58
Sheffield Utd xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
18.10
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.58 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 5W 3D 7L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Utd's form line: 5W 3D 7L from 15 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Sheffield Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.20 PPG, Sheffield Utd on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nottingham Forest have posted 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L). That actually lags their 1.20 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Sheffield Utd have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 1.33 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nottingham Forest have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Sheffield Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Sheffield Utd's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 0.57 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Utd runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nottingham Forest go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Sheffield Utd specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
1
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 3, Sheffield Utd have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Sheffield Utd 1-3 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Utd?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sheffield Utd see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 71%, Sheffield Utd 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Nottingham Forest and 57% for Sheffield Utd. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 29% of games; Sheffield Utd in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Sheffield Utd?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Nottingham Forest's games and 43% of Sheffield Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 57% of Sheffield Utd's.
Do Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Utd tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sheffield Utd in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Utd share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest and Sheffield Utd finished level at 1-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.13 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.58 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.78 / defence 1.54 against Sheffield Utd attack 0.92 / defence 1.33, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 27% | Draw 26% | Sheffield Utd 47%, with Sheffield Utd to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 60%, Sheffield Utd 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.20 PPG, Sheffield Utd 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.