West Brom 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 39%, yet in-form Charlton provide a compelling counter-argument — this West Brom vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
West Brom welcome Charlton to The Hawthorns in Championship (matchday 34). Kick-off is Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, West Brom have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, West Brom have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — West Brom are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Charlton — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Charlton — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, West Brom have won 0, Charlton 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2025, ended West Brom 0–1 Charlton — a Charlton win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
West Brom trading profile (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Charlton trading profile (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 54% versus Charlton 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 42% | Charlton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.32 xG and Charlton 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.861 / defence 1.245 | Charlton attack 0.792 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.190. Charlton's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. West Brom's defence rating of 1.245 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Data: built from West Brom's last 79 games and Charlton's last 33.
Result probabilities: West Brom 39% | Draw 29% | Charlton 32%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.58 | Draw 3.40 | Charlton 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates West Brom as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charlton (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Brom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Brom 60% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, matchday 34 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 39% | Draw 29% | Charlton 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG West Brom 1.32 / Charlton 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.861 / def 1.245 | Charlton attack 0.792 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: West Brom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Charlton xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Brom vs Charlton FAQs
What time does West Brom vs Charlton kick off?
West Brom vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Charlton?
West Brom 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is West Brom vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Charlton part of?
West Brom vs Charlton is a Championship fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 39% chance of winning, Charlton a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both West Brom and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will West Brom vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
West Brom's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from West Brom's last 79 games and Charlton's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.40
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.50
1.17
Charlton xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Brom vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are West Brom and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for West Brom and 1.17 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Brom's recent record stands at 24W 26D 29L from 79 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 34W 21D 24L across 79 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Brom on 1.24 PPG, Charlton on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, West Brom have managed 17W 13D 9L from their last 39 home games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 12W 11D 16L across their last 39 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Brom are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.23 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
West Brom (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Brom
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ West Brom vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are West Brom and Charlton in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 24W 26D 29L in their last 79 games (1.24 PPG), while Charlton have gone 34W 21D 24L in their last 79 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Charlton away?
West Brom's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.64 PPG; Charlton away: 1.21 PPG.
Have West Brom or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Charlton in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2025. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 2 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
West Brom's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
West Brom
2
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ West Brom vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Charlton?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, West Brom have won 0, Charlton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 September 2026: West Brom 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 49%, Charlton 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (West Brom) and 49% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Charlton in 33%; West Brom have failed to score in 31% of games; Charlton in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Brom vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Brom and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of West Brom's recent matches and 41% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are West Brom and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of West Brom's recent games and 49% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of West Brom's recent matches and 51% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.32 xG and Charlton 1.17 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.86 / defence 1.25 against Charlton attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 79/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 39% | Draw 29% | Charlton 32%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 42%, Charlton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.24 PPG, Charlton 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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