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Poisson model favours Wrexham (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Charlton face Wrexham.

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Full Analysis

The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Wrexham in Championship, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Charlton have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Charlton's home record at The Valley: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley.

Wrexham (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Wrexham's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On a straight form reading, Wrexham are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Charlton, 2 for Wrexham and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Wrexham winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (80 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Wrexham half-time and goal-timing data (80 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 46% versus Wrexham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | Wrexham 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.93 xG and Wrexham 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.738 / defence 1.065 | Wrexham attack 0.990 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.188. Charlton's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Charlton games / 34 Wrexham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Charlton 26% | Draw 32% | Wrexham 42%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Wrexham 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Wrexham at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wrexham if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 50% | Wrexham 50%.

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