Swansea 1-1 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs Preston encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Swansea welcome Preston to Swansea.com Stadium in Championship (matchday 34). Kick-off is Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Swansea have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Swansea's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Preston — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Preston's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Swansea are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Swansea have won 4, Preston 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2025, ended Swansea 1–2 Preston — a Preston win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Swansea in-play and half-time data (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Preston in-play and half-time data (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 46% versus Preston 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 46% | Preston 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Swansea surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Preston have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.51 xG and Preston 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.147 / defence 0.855 | Preston attack 0.890 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.190. Data: built from Swansea's last 79 games and Preston's last 79.
Result probabilities: Swansea 50% | Draw 28% | Preston 21%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.99 | Draw 3.53 | Preston 4.66. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Swansea 50% (last 10 home games) | Preston 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Preston | Competition: Championship, matchday 34 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 50% | Draw 28% | Preston 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Swansea 1.51 / Preston 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.147 / def 0.855 | Preston attack 0.890 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Swansea (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Preston xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swansea vs Preston FAQs
What time does Swansea vs Preston kick off?
Swansea vs Preston kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Preston?
Swansea 1 - 1 Preston.
Where is Swansea vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Preston part of?
Swansea vs Preston is a Championship fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 50% chance of winning, Preston a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Swansea and Preston will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Swansea vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swansea's attack at 1.15x the league average against Preston's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swansea's last 79 games and Preston's last 79 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.53
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.41
0.91
Preston xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
5%
21.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swansea vs Preston Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Swansea and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Swansea and 0.91 for Preston, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea come into this having played 79 games, going 30W 16D 33L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.24 PPG from 79 outings (22W 32D 25L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.34 PPG, Preston on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swansea's home form reads 18W 10D 11L across their last 39 home games, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 39 away games (8W 14D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.11 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 79 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
Swansea (Home) vs Preston (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swansea
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Swansea vs Preston Form FAQs
What form are Swansea and Preston in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 30W 16D 33L in their last 79 games (1.34 PPG), while Preston have gone 22W 32D 25L in their last 79 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Preston away?
Swansea's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.64 PPG; Preston away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Swansea or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Preston in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 24 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2024, when Swansea won Swansea 3-0 Preston.
Swansea's record when hosting Preston specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Swansea
2
Draws
4
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Swansea vs Preston H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Preston?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Swansea have won 4, Preston have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Preston last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2026: Swansea 1-1 Preston.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 49%, Preston 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Swansea) and 49% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Preston in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swansea vs Preston Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swansea and Preston matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Swansea's games and 62% of Preston's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Swansea and Preston matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Swansea's recent games and 49% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Preston matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Swansea's recent matches and 74% of Preston's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swansea and Preston share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 34, as Swansea and Preston drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.51 xG and Preston 0.91 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.15 / defence 0.85 against Preston attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 50% | Draw 28% | Preston 21%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, Preston 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Preston's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.34 PPG, Preston 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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