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Poisson rates Ipswich at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ipswich vs Swansea encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 35 as Ipswich welcome Swansea to Portman Road. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ipswich stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Ipswich at Portman Road this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Portman Road.

Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Swansea away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ipswich 2.00 PPG, Swansea 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Ipswich have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Swansea have managed just 0 wins.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 4–1 with Ipswich winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ipswich and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Ipswich in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Swansea in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 60% versus Swansea 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 56% | Swansea 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.64 xG and Swansea 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.174 / defence 0.826 | Swansea attack 0.816 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.188. Data: 32 Ipswich games / 80 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ipswich 56% | Draw 27% | Swansea 17%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Swansea 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Ipswich (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Ipswich 40% | Swansea 50% BTTS from recent games.

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