Plymouth 3-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Cardiff meet at Home Park in Championship, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall Championship record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Home Park this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Cardiff have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Plymouth, 0 for Cardiff and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Cardiff half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 58% versus Cardiff 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 60% | Cardiff 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.91 xG and Cardiff 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.368 / defence 1.404 | Cardiff attack 0.971 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.202. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.368 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 27 Plymouth games / 73 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 45% | Draw 22% | Cardiff 33%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Cardiff 3.03. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 70% | Cardiff 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 45% | Draw 22% | Cardiff 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Plymouth 1.91 / Cardiff 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.368 / def 1.404 | Cardiff attack 0.971 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Cardiff xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Cardiff kick off?
Plymouth vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Plymouth 3 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Plymouth vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Cardiff part of?
Plymouth vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 45% chance of winning, Cardiff a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Plymouth and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cardiff?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 1 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Cardiff in?
Plymouth (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 1.37x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (0.97x) against Plymouth's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 27/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
45%
2.24
22%
4.56
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.55
1.64
Cardiff xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
5%
20.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.64 for Cardiff, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 38W 17D 18L record — D-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cardiff's form line: 24W 14D 35L from 73 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cardiff.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.36 PPG from 36 outings (27W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 12W 5D 19L from 36 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.03 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 38W 17D 18L in their last 73 games (1.79 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 24W 14D 35L in their last 73 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Cardiff away?
Plymouth's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.36 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cardiff in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cardiff won 5-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Plymouth
2
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cardiff?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Cardiff have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Plymouth 5-2 Cardiff.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 53%, Cardiff 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Plymouth) and 50% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Cardiff in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Plymouth's recent matches and 39% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Plymouth's matches and 50% of Cardiff's.
Do Plymouth and Cardiff tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Cardiff 3-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.91 xG and Cardiff 1.64 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.37 / defence 1.40 against Cardiff attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 27/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 45% | Draw 22% | Cardiff 33%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 60%, Cardiff 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cardiff's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. Cardiff (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.