Hull City 1-0 Millwall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hull City at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hull City face Millwall.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hull City and Millwall meet at The MKM Stadium in Championship (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Hull City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Hull City have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Millwall (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Millwall have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Hull City edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Hull City 2–2 Millwall — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Millwall half-time and goal-timing data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 55% versus Millwall 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 49% | Millwall 40%). Note also that Millwall surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Hull City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.34 xG and Millwall 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.028 / defence 0.997 | Millwall attack 0.896 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.183. Data: built from Hull City's last 74 games and Millwall's last 75.
Result probabilities: Hull City 43% | Draw 29% | Millwall 29%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.34 | Draw 3.50 | Millwall 3.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | Millwall 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, matchday 30 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 43% | Draw 29% | Millwall 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Hull City 1.34 / Millwall 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.028 / def 0.997 | Millwall attack 0.896 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Hull City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Millwall xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Millwall FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Millwall kick off?
Hull City vs Millwall kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Millwall?
Hull City 1 - 0 Millwall.
Where is Hull City vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Millwall part of?
Hull City vs Millwall is a Championship fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 43% chance of winning, Millwall a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hull City and Millwall will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Hull City vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hull City's attack at 1.03x the league average against Millwall's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Millwall's attack (0.90x) against Hull City's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 74 games and Millwall's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.50
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.40
1.06
Millwall xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Millwall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hull City and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hull City and 1.06 for Millwall, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 26W 22D 26L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Millwall's form line: 26W 20D 28L from 74 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Hull City against 1.32 for Millwall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.49 PPG from their last 37 home games (15W 10D 12L).
On the road, Millwall have gone 12W 10D 15L from their last 37 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 1.15 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Millwall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Millwall Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Millwall in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 26W 22D 26L in their last 74 games (1.35 PPG), while Millwall have gone 26W 20D 28L in their last 74 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Millwall away?
Hull City's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.49 PPG; Millwall away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Hull City or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Millwall in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 11 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Millwall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hull City
4
Draws
1
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Millwall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Millwall?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 5, Millwall have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Millwall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2026: Millwall 0-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Millwall?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Millwall see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 54%, Millwall 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hull City) and 38% (Millwall).
On the defensive side: Millwall in 32%; Millwall in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Millwall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Millwall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hull City's recent matches and 40% of Millwall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Millwall matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hull City's recent games and 38% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Millwall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Hull City's recent matches and 60% of Millwall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Millwall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Millwall 1-0 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.34 xG and Millwall 1.06 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Millwall landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Millwall attack 0.90 / defence 0.93, drawn from 74/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 43% | Draw 29% | Millwall 29%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, Millwall 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Millwall's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.35 PPG, Millwall 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Millwall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 30
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →