Swansea 3-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Swansea take on Cardiff.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Cardiff at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Swansea have posted 1W 3D 1L at Swansea.com Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Swansea at 1.10 PPG versus Cardiff's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cardiff in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 46% versus Cardiff 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 46% | Cardiff 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.93 xG and Cardiff 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.642 / defence 0.950 | Cardiff attack 0.925 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.114. Swansea's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Swansea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Swansea games / 11 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 31% | Draw 35% | Cardiff 34%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Cardiff 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 20% | Cardiff 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 31% | Draw 35% | Cardiff 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Swansea 0.93 / Cardiff 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.642 / def 0.950 | Cardiff attack 0.925 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cardiff xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Cardiff kick off?
Swansea vs Cardiff kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Cardiff?
Swansea 3 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Swansea vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Cardiff part of?
Swansea vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 31% chance of winning, Cardiff a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Swansea and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Cardiff?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swansea and Cardiff in?
Swansea (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swansea's attack rating (0.64) and Cardiff's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.20
35%
2.85
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Swansea xG
Total xG
1.91
0.98
Cardiff xG
3.20
31%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 14.5 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Swansea and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Swansea and 0.98 for Cardiff, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swansea's recent record stands at 2W 5D 4L from 11 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cardiff, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 6L across 11 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.00 PPG, Cardiff on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Swansea have managed 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cardiff's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.09 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Cardiff away?
Cardiff's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.20 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Swansea or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Cardiff in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Swansea won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Swansea
1
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, Swansea have won 5, Cardiff have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cardiff 3-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Cardiff?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 20%, Cardiff 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Swansea) and 60% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Swansea have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Swansea's recent matches and 60% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Swansea's recent games and 60% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Cardiff tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Swansea run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Cardiff 3-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.93 xG and Cardiff 0.98 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cardiff landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.64 / defence 0.95 against Cardiff attack 0.93 / defence 1.38, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 31% | Draw 35% | Cardiff 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, Cardiff 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cardiff's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.00 PPG, Cardiff 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.