Derby 0-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Swansea at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 0L across 5 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Swansea have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.30 PPG, Swansea 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Swansea in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Swansea in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 40% versus Swansea 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derby 20% | Swansea 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.44 xG and Swansea 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.872 / defence 0.902 | Swansea attack 0.977 / defence 1.527. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.140. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.527 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Derby games / 10 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 30% | Swansea 25%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Swansea 4.00. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 60% | Swansea 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 30% | Swansea 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Derby 1.44 / Swansea 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.872 / def 0.902 | Swansea attack 0.977 / def 1.527 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Derby (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Swansea xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Swansea kick off?
Derby vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Swansea?
Derby 0 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Derby vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Swansea part of?
Derby vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 45% chance of winning, Swansea a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Derby and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Swansea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Swansea in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Swansea (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Derby's attack rating (0.87) and Swansea's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.31
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Derby xG
Total xG
2.44
1.00
Swansea xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Derby and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Derby and 1.00 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 4D 3L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.30 PPG, Swansea on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 0.90 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Swansea in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Swansea in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Swansea have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Swansea away?
Derby's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.80 PPG; Swansea away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Derby or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Swansea in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Derby go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Derby's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
3
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Swansea?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Swansea have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Derby 2-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Derby at 60%, Swansea at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Derby) and 80% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Swansea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Derby's games and 80% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Derby's recent games and 80% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Swansea tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Swansea in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Derby's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby and Swansea finished level at 0-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.44 xG and Swansea 1.00 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Derby fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Swansea landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.87 / defence 0.90 against Swansea attack 0.98 / defence 1.53, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 45% | Draw 30% | Swansea 25%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 20%, Swansea 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swansea's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.30 PPG, Swansea 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.