Swansea 2-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates West Brom at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swansea vs West Brom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Swansea and West Brom meet at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Swansea have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 1L across 6 games at Swansea.com Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
West Brom (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Championship outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom away from home this season: 3W 2D 1L from 6 away games — 1.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, West Brom are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 42% versus West Brom 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 50% | West Brom 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 0.83 xG and West Brom 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.834 / defence 0.847 | West Brom attack 1.061 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.116. Data: 12 Swansea games / 12 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 28% | Draw 34% | West Brom 37%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | West Brom 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 17% | West Brom 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 28% | Draw 34% | West Brom 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Swansea 0.83 / West Brom 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.834 / def 0.847 | West Brom attack 1.061 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: West Brom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.00
West Brom xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs West Brom kick off?
Swansea vs West Brom kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 20 October 2021 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs West Brom?
Swansea 2 - 1 West Brom.
Where is Swansea vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs West Brom part of?
Swansea vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 28% chance of winning, West Brom a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Swansea and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and West Brom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swansea and West Brom in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. West Brom (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Swansea's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (1.06x) against Swansea's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
28%
3.55
34%
2.90
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Swansea xG
Total xG
1.83
1.00
West Brom xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Swansea and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Swansea and 1.00 for West Brom, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Swansea come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 5D 4L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Brom sit at 2.08 PPG from 12 outings (7W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Brom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Swansea — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Swansea's home form reads 2W 3D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, West Brom have taken 1.83 points per game from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games; West Brom in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and West Brom in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while West Brom have gone 7W 4D 1L in their last 12 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or West Brom away?
West Brom's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.50 PPG; West Brom away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Swansea or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, West Brom in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Swansea
1
Draws
3
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and West Brom?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 6, West Brom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Swansea 1-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and West Brom?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Swansea) and 50% (West Brom) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Swansea) and 50% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches; West Brom in 33%; Swansea have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Swansea's recent matches and 50% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Swansea's recent games and 50% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and West Brom tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, West Brom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat West Brom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat West Brom 2-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 0.83 xG and West Brom 1.00 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Swansea beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.83 / defence 0.85 against West Brom attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 28% | Draw 34% | West Brom 37%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 50%, West Brom 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
West Brom's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Swansea winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm. West Brom (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.