West Brom 1-0 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Hawthorns plays host to West Brom versus Birmingham in Championship, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 15 October 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Brom have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom's home record at The Hawthorns: 3W 2D 0L from 5 Championship appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Birmingham's overall Championship record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Birmingham have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. West Brom's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Birmingham's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
West Brom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Birmingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 54% versus Birmingham 18%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 54% | Birmingham 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.47 xG and Birmingham 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.170 / defence 1.018 | Birmingham attack 0.863 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.145. Data: 11 West Brom games / 11 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 46% | Draw 30% | Birmingham 24%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Birmingham 4.17. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates West Brom as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: West Brom 60% | Birmingham 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 46% | Draw 30% | Birmingham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG West Brom 1.47 / Birmingham 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.170 / def 1.018 | Birmingham attack 0.863 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: West Brom (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Birmingham xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Birmingham kick off?
West Brom vs Birmingham kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 15 October 2021 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Birmingham?
West Brom 1 - 0 Birmingham.
Where is West Brom vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Birmingham part of?
West Brom vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 46% chance of winning, Birmingham a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both West Brom and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Birmingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Brom and Birmingham in?
West Brom (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Birmingham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from West Brom's attack rating (1.17) and Birmingham's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.86x) against West Brom's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.33
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.48
1.01
Birmingham xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
6%
18.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are West Brom and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for West Brom and 1.01 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, West Brom have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 6W 4D 1L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Birmingham's form line: 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, West Brom are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Birmingham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, West Brom have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
On the road, Birmingham have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Brom are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 0.91 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Birmingham in 18%.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Birmingham in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Birmingham in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 6W 4D 1L in their last 11 games (2.00 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Birmingham away?
West Brom's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 2.20 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.40 PPG.
Have West Brom or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Birmingham in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
West Brom
2
Draws
5
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Birmingham?
From 9 meetings on record, West Brom have won 2, Birmingham have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when West Brom 0-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Birmingham?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 60%, Birmingham 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (West Brom) and 40% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Birmingham in 40%; Birmingham in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of West Brom's recent matches and 20% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of West Brom's recent games and 40% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Birmingham tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out Birmingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Birmingham 1-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.47 xG and Birmingham 1.01 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Birmingham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.17 / defence 1.02 against Birmingham attack 0.86 / defence 1.18, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 46% | Draw 30% | Birmingham 24%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 54%, Birmingham 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Birmingham's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.