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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Bristol City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Swansea beat Bristol City 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.59 xG and Bristol City 1.02 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bristol City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Bristol City attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Swansea 49% | Draw 27% | Bristol City 23%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, Bristol City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Swansea's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Bristol City's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Swansea 1.32 PPG, Bristol City 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights