Swansea 1-0 Bristol City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swansea face Bristol City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bristol City make the trip to Swansea.com Stadium to face Swansea in Championship (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Swansea (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Swansea at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Swansea are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bristol City's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bristol City's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Swansea, 3 for Bristol City and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Swansea 0–3 Bristol City — a Bristol City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Bristol City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 46% versus Bristol City 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 46% | Bristol City 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Swansea surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Bristol City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.59 xG and Bristol City 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 1.181 / defence 0.942 | Bristol City attack 0.935 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.164. Data: built from Swansea's last 78 games and Bristol City's last 78.
Result probabilities: Swansea 49% | Draw 27% | Bristol City 23%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.03 | Draw 3.68 | Bristol City 4.26. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swansea 60% (last 10 home games) | Bristol City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Bristol City | Competition: Championship, matchday 33 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 49% | Draw 27% | Bristol City 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Swansea 1.59 / Bristol City 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 1.181 / def 0.942 | Bristol City attack 0.935 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Swansea (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Bristol City xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swansea vs Bristol City FAQs
What time does Swansea vs Bristol City kick off?
Swansea vs Bristol City kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Bristol City?
Swansea 1 - 0 Bristol City.
Where is Swansea vs Bristol City being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Bristol City part of?
Swansea vs Bristol City is a Championship fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Bristol City?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 49% chance of winning, Bristol City a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Bristol City?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Swansea and Bristol City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swansea vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Swansea's attack rating (1.18) and Bristol City's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bristol City's attack (0.94x) against Swansea's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Swansea's last 78 games and Bristol City's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.68
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.61
1.02
Bristol City xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
5%
20.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swansea vs Bristol City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Bristol City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Swansea and Bristol City expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Swansea and 1.02 for Bristol City, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Bristol City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 78 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 29W 16D 33L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Bristol City's form line: 29W 24D 25L from 78 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Swansea against 1.42 for Bristol City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 38 home games (17W 10D 11L).
On the road, Bristol City have gone 10W 13D 15L from their last 38 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swansea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Swansea are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Bristol City are on 1.27 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 78 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
Swansea (Home) vs Bristol City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swansea
Current Season
Bristol City
Current Season
❓ Swansea vs Bristol City Form FAQs
What form are Swansea and Bristol City in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 29W 16D 33L in their last 78 games (1.32 PPG), while Bristol City have gone 29W 24D 25L in their last 78 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Bristol City away?
Swansea's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.61 PPG; Bristol City away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Swansea and Bristol City, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bristol City won Bristol City 3-0 Swansea on 22 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swansea have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bristol City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Swansea
2
Draws
3
Bristol City
Recent Meetings
❓ Swansea vs Bristol City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Bristol City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Swansea have won 5, Bristol City have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Bristol City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Swansea 1-0 Bristol City.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Bristol City?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bristol City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 50%, Bristol City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Swansea) and 42% (Bristol City).
On the defensive side: Swansea keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bristol City in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Bristol City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swansea vs Bristol City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swansea and Bristol City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Swansea's recent matches and 47% of Bristol City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Swansea and Bristol City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Swansea's recent games and 42% of Bristol City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Bristol City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Swansea's recent matches and 68% of Bristol City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Swansea edge out Bristol City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Bristol City 1-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.59 xG and Bristol City 1.02 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bristol City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Bristol City attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 49% | Draw 27% | Bristol City 23%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 46%, Bristol City 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Bristol City's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.32 PPG, Bristol City 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Swansea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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