Stoke City 1-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stoke City at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stoke City vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 44 as Stoke City welcome QPR to bet365 Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stoke City — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Stoke City's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at bet365 Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Championship this season, QPR have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Stoke City carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Stoke City, 0 for QPR and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Stoke City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stoke City in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
QPR in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stoke City 51% versus QPR 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stoke City 46% | QPR 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stoke City 1.24 xG and QPR 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stoke City attack 0.880 / defence 1.121 | QPR attack 0.907 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.128. QPR bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Stoke City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Stoke City games / 43 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stoke City 38% | Draw 28% | QPR 34%. Fair-value odds: Stoke City 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | QPR 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stoke City are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stoke City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stoke City 50% | QPR 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stoke City vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: bet365 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stoke City 38% | Draw 28% | QPR 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Stoke City 1.24 / QPR 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Stoke City attack 0.880 / def 1.121 | QPR attack 0.907 / def 1.332 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Stoke City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Stoke City xG
Expected Goals
1.15
QPR xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stoke City vs QPR kick off?
Stoke City vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at bet365 Stadium.
What was the final score in Stoke City vs QPR?
Stoke City 1 - 0 QPR.
Where is Stoke City vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at bet365 Stadium.
What competition is Stoke City vs QPR part of?
Stoke City vs QPR is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Stoke City vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Stoke City a 38% chance of winning, QPR a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stoke City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stoke City vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stoke City and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Stoke City vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and QPR?
Record (1 meetings): Stoke City 1W | Draws 0 | QPR 0W.
What form are Stoke City and QPR in?
Stoke City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. QPR (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stoke City's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Stoke City's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
38%
2.61
28%
3.61
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Stoke City xG
Total xG
2.38
1.15
QPR xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stoke City vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stoke City and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Stoke City and 1.15 for QPR, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Stoke City vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stoke City's recent record stands at 16W 10D 17L from 43 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 16L across 43 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stoke City on 1.35 PPG, QPR on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stoke City have managed 9W 4D 8L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 8W 3D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stoke City are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.35 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stoke City
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stoke City and QPR in coming into this match?
Stoke City have gone 16W 10D 17L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while QPR have gone 18W 9D 16L in their last 43 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stoke City at home or QPR away?
Stoke City's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stoke City at home: 1.48 PPG; QPR away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Stoke City or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, QPR in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stoke City and QPR runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stoke City's record when hosting QPR specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stoke City
3
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stoke City and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Stoke City have won 4, QPR have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stoke City and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Stoke City 0-0 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Stoke City and QPR?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stoke City see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stoke City 43%, QPR 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Stoke City) and 71% (QPR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stoke City keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stoke City home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stoke City play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Stoke City's games and 71% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stoke City vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Stoke City's matches and 71% of QPR's.
Do Stoke City and QPR tend to score early?
Stoke City have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, QPR in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stoke City edge out QPR 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat QPR 1-0 at bet365 Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stoke City 1.24 xG and QPR 1.15 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. QPR landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stoke City attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against QPR attack 0.91 / defence 1.33, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stoke City 38% | Draw 28% | QPR 34%, with Stoke City to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stoke City 46%, QPR 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stoke City's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
QPR's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stoke City 1.35 PPG, QPR 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Stoke City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.